As Iraq and the US discuss the future of bilateral ties over the course of their recently started talks, Iran will attempt to influence the outcome.
On June 11, US and Iraqi officials began a series of talks as part of a “strategic dialogue” on military, trade and economic cooperation between the two countries. Baghdad probably will prioritize its worsening economic emergency while Washington will likely focus on the prospect of reducing US troops in the region.
The talks, which are expected to last months, will be held virtually due to coronavirus restrictions. Iraq has recently witnessed a surge in cases, increasing its total number of infections to over 16,000.
The dialogue comes against a backdrop of escalating tensions in the wake of a series of fatal rocket attacks on American troops last year. Bilateral ties were also strained in January following the US airstrike that killed top Iranian General Qasem Soleimani on Iraqi soil.
But tensions have eased considerably since Mustafa al-Kadhimi, the former director of Iraq’s National Intelligence Service, was sworn in as prime minister last month. Following his appointment, Washington immediately granted another 120-day waiver to Baghdad to maintain importing gas and electricity from Iran “as a display of our desire to help provide the right conditions for success,” according to the US State Department.
Kadhimi has been vocal in expressing his disapproval of non-state actors intervening in Iraqi affairs. Particularly, the prime minister has cracked down on Iranian-backed militias known as the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU). Although the PMU played a role in the fight against ISIS at the onset of the conflict, they have become a violent force in Iraq, contributing to the brutality against civilian protesters in late 2019.
These vehemently anti-American militias are critical to Iran’s terrorism-exporting enterprise. Unsurprisingly, the PMU is attempting to secure a spot in these talks, according to Hezbollah-linked social media accounts.
Tehran has been straining to insert itself into the US-Iraq conversation. Iran’s new Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, publicly denounced the prospect of US-Iraq talks as “futile.” Iranian officials have also verbalized their desire to expel US troops from both Iraq and Syria for years.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei declared, “The Americans won’t stay in Iraq and Syria and will be expelled,” in a speech to students just last month. These remarks along with Iranian media coverage of the US-Iraq talks are part of a renewed pressure campaign aimed at Baghdad’s government to cut off ties with the United States.
Days before the dialogue was set to commence, a rocket landed inside Baghdad airport close to where US forces are based. This latest round of rocket fire marks the 29th attack against American troops or diplomats since October. Although there was not an immediate claim of responsibility, similar attacks have previously been carried out by pro-Iranian militias.
As Iraq and the US discuss the future of bilateral ties over the course of the strategic dialogue, Iran will attempt to influence the outcome. Regardless, the aftermath of these talks will impact not only Iraq, but the entirety of the Middle East for years to come.
The writer is an analyst at the Center for Security Policy, located in Washington. DC. She is also a master’s candidate in counter-terrorism and homeland security at IDC Herzliya’s Lauder School of Government.