David
I hope you are well. I thank you for all you have taught us (readers & my family).

I look forward to reading your assessment of the current situation, which must be forming in your always active mind.

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Thanks and take care,
John

Hello John, I have a half-written article on the subject (in fact my latest blog, American Ideology vs. Realpolitik: Iran, Syria and the Return of Russia covered most of my thoughts on the matter but wasn't visible long enough to attract an audience [so why write?].  I have little to add to what I've been writing since the Bush Iraq adventure oriented America towards accommodation with Iran in 2004. I keep assuming Obama (American foreign policy) will awaken to reality. But the US is too dogmatically "ideological" to see its true interests in the reason.

Russia's return to the region I have long understood. Just not the speed at which Putin would pull it off. Any rational Western policy would immediately understand that Israel is critical to any possibility of confronting Putin. But as recently as today headlines read that in his continuing demonstration of pique Obama publicly stuck it to Israel again by not openly opposing Abbas UN speech. And this the day after Putin bombed US allies instead of ISIL targets.

Israel is as always the only stabilizing force in the region, and evidence of US credibility and presence in the region. Always tenuous and misguided (Carter-Iran, 1979; Reagan-Iran-Nicaragua, 1985; and the endless disaster Bush/Obama... Just today Putin warned Israel against violating Syrian airspace for any reason. Israel cannot allow this and there is every possibility of another clash between Israel and Russia as took place in Egypt during the Six Day War in which Israel downed five Russian-piloted MIGs. Whether or not Israel can repeat that, in the end the US either stands behind its self-evident self-interests and faces Russia down, something which it failed to do with Iran over the past 14-plus years and wound up with a nuclear threshold Islamist state... Not a very likely turn for Obama facing Russia.

The result today, John, is that the unstable Mid-East the US created over the past two presidencies is now that much more unstable because America's former alliances are in a state of shock and uncertainty: How confront expansionist Iran backed by its RELIABLE sponsor, Russia, without a reliable America to deal with the rising hegemon.

Israel and the Arabs united (wishful thinking) against Iran is a shoe-in. Against Russia?

Hope this helps, John. No certainties in an uncertain environment. Nothing positive to as assurances!

For a better outcome,

David
 
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