How much would a pullout from Judea and Samaria cost?

Evacuating all construction beyond the Green Line except Jerusalem neighborhoods would cost NIS 224 billion.

By MOSHE LICHTMAN
October 16, 2011 05:57
2 minute read.
Efrat

Efrat 521. (photo credit: Ariel Jerozolimski)

The cost of pulling out of Judea and Samaria would cost NIS 42 billion, and it could go as high as NIS 220b. or more, under certain scenarios, according to an investigation by Globes.

Globes examined the cost of four different pullout scenarios.

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• Under the Clinton Plan, Israel would evacuate all construction beyond the Green Line, except for neighborhoods in Jerusalem. This scenario assumes a general agreement that there is no way back in Jerusalem. However, it is impossible to ignore international anger every time Israel approves another neighborhood beyond the Green Line, such as in Har Homa or Gilo; 129 settlements with 320,000 residents in 56,000 apartments and homes would be evacuated. The cost of alternative housing is NIS 40b. and the cost of evacuation on the Gush Katif model is NIS 224b.

• Under the Israeli Plan, Israel would pull out of 92 percent of the West Bank, exchange land for the annexation of settlement blocs and would not evacuate neighborhoods in Jerusalem. This scenario is based on a map prepared by the Palestinians for talks in 2008. Israel would keep Ariel, Ma’aleh Adumim, the Etzion Bloc and some other settlements; 72 settlements with 63,000 residents 10,500 apartments and homes would be evacuated. The cost of alternative housing is NIS 8b., and the cost of evacuation is NIS 42b.

• Under the Palestinian Plan, Israel would pull out of 98% of the West Bank, including settlement blocs, but would not evacuate neighborhoods in Jerusalem.

This scenario assumes that Israel would exchange land for the 2% of the West Bank that it would keep. Israel would evacuate Ariel, Ma'aleh Adumim, Beit Horon, Psagot, Efrat, Emmanuel and Kedumim; 105 settlements with 176,000 residents 33,000 apartments and homes would be evacuated. The cost of alternative housing is NIS 24b., and the cost of evacuation is NIS 132b.

• Under the 1967 border scenario, Israel would pull out of the entire West Bank. This is a highly unlikely scenario, which has never been on the table in peace talks. It would involve the evacuation of 500,000 people in 108,000 apartments and homes; 72 settlements with 63,000 residents and 10,500 apartments and homes would be evacuated. The cost of alternative housing is NIS 75b., and the cost of evacuation is NIS 432b.

The scenarios are based on the evacuation of Gush Katif in the Gaza Strip in 2005 by the Sharon government; 9,000 residents in 22 settlements were evacuated.

The civilian cost of the evacuation was estimated at NIS 7.2b., plus NIS 2.7b. in military costs. The civilian costs included NIS 2.3b. in new infrastructures, NIS 2b. in direct personal compensation, NIS 1.5b. in compensation for businesses and the rest for other compensation items.


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