Analysis: Factoring in retaliation

Syria would be foolish to open a new front against Israel; its forces are stretched to the limit dealing with rebels.

By
February 4, 2013 01:55
1 minute read.
Syrian site reportedly bombed by IAF.

Syrian site reportedly bombed by IAF 370. (photo credit: YouTube Screenshot)

 
X

Dear Reader,
As you can imagine, more people are reading The Jerusalem Post than ever before. Nevertheless, traditional business models are no longer sustainable and high-quality publications, like ours, are being forced to look for new ways to keep going. Unlike many other news organizations, we have not put up a paywall. We want to keep our journalism open and accessible and be able to keep providing you with news and analysis from the frontlines of Israel, the Middle East and the Jewish World.

As one of our loyal readers, we ask you to be our partner.

For $5 a month you will receive access to the following:

  • A user experience almost completely free of ads
  • Access to our Premium Section
  • Content from the award-winning Jerusalem Report and our monthly magazine to learn Hebrew - Ivrit
  • A brand new ePaper featuring the daily newspaper as it appears in print in Israel

Help us grow and continue telling Israel’s story to the world.

Thank you,

Ronit Hasin-Hochman, CEO, Jerusalem Post Group
Yaakov Katz, Editor-in-Chief

UPGRADE YOUR JPOST EXPERIENCE FOR 5$ PER MONTH Show me later

On the surface of things, Israel is projecting a business-as-usual message, days after air strikes attributed by foreign media to the Israel Air Force targeted an attempt to transfer strategic weapons to Hezbollah.

The two most senior defense officials are abroad.

The IDF chief of staff went ahead with a planned visit to the United States, and Defense Minister Ehud Barak is in Germany for an international security conference.

But behind the scenes, there can be little doubt that the IDF is on a high state of alert – as IAF fighter jets are, according to Lebanese media, flying sorties over southern Lebanon, the home of Hezbollah.

Presumably, Israel is looking out for two principal developments. The first would involve a new attempt to proliferate advanced Syrian arms or unconventional weapons, either through a transfer to Hezbollah, or the capture of Syrian military bases by the rebels. The second would be attempts by Damascus, or its allies in Tehran and southern Lebanon, to carry out a vengeance attack on Israel.

Syria would be foolish to open up a new front against Israel, as its forces are stretched to the limit in dealing with the rebels. A second front could easily topple the regime of President Bashar Assad.


Unsurprisingly, Iran, the country that said before the air strikes that it will view an attack on Syria as an attack on itself, is leading the vengeance chorus.

These threats cannot be dismissed.

Iran and its proxy, Hezbollah, can try to activate terrorist cells overseas to attack Israeli interests, or might order terrorists to anonymously attempt a missile attack on Israel from Lebanese or Syrian territory.

Yet, all parties are aware of the dangers of such “retribution.”

It could cause a wider escalation, at a time when the Iran-Syria-Hezbollah axis is in a strategically weak situation.

Join Jerusalem Post Premium Plus now for just $5 and upgrade your experience with an ads-free website and exclusive content. Click here>>

Related Content

idf hebron
August 22, 2014
Palestinians throw Molotov cocktail at IDF checkpoint in Hebron

By KHALED ABU TOAMEH, TOVAH LAZAROFF

Cookie Settings