WASHINGTON – The 2020 presidential elections are going to be different than any other campaign in modern history. Rallies are not planned for the upcoming weeks – if not months – to follow social distancing guidelines. Many states are preparing for a large volume of requests to vote by mail, and even the traditional conventions are in doubt.
But above all, it seems that in this election cycle, unlike any recent campaign, the fewer media appearances, the better for the candidate. Since the outbreak of COVID-19 and until last week, US President Donald Trump had followed a routine that included a daily press briefing, in which he answered dozens of questions about the administration’s reaction to the pandemic.
For the past few weeks, the president had the nation’s attention almost daily, with briefings broadcast live on most of the major TV and radio networks. Meanwhile, his Democratic rival, Joe Biden, who is known for his frequent gaffes, is self-quarantined in his house in Delaware, and will only occasionally give an interview out of his studio basement.
Initially, that fact seemed to benefit Trump. On March 20, a Morning Consult survey found that 53% of Americans approved of the way he handled COVID-19 response, and only 39% disapproved. But three weeks later, on April 12, the same survey found that 49% disliked the way he was handling the pandemic, and only 45% approved. During the same period, polls put Biden in a leading position in crucial swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida.
Trump sent mixed messages in the past few weeks about the epidemic. First, about how severe it is. After initially predicting the virus would “disappear” like the seasonal flu, he changed his tone and recognized that the coronavirus is, in fact, more deadly and more contagious.
Second, about the right time to reopen the economy. The president repeatedly said that “the cure can’t be worse than the disease,” making the case that a long pause of the economy could create long-term damage to American families. He then said he hoped to see churches full by Easter, April 12, but later explained it was an “aspirational” date. And while the White House published guidelines that called to practice social distance until April 30, in the past couple of weeks, Trump called to “liberate” some states, such as Michigan, Virginia and Minnesota.
Third, about a possible treatment for the virus. Trump initially praised a malaria drug named hydroxychloroquine as a potential treatment. “What do you have to lose?” he said about taking it. But recent research showed no benefit in taking the drug to treat COVID-19.
In addition, Trump made headlines and astounded much of the nation when he floated the idea of using either UV light or disinfectants to kill the virus.
“Supposing you brought the light inside of the body, which you can do either through the skin or in some other way. And I think you said you’re going to test that, too. Sounds interesting,” Trump said last week. He asked if disinfectants could be used on the body “by injection inside or almost a cleaning.”
On Friday, he clarified that his remarks were sarcastic. “I was asking a question sarcastically to reporters like you, just to see what would happen,” he told a reporter at the White House.
Lastly, there was a public dispute on display between the president and Adm. Brett Giroir, the assistant secretary of health, who is in charge of the Federal COVID-19 testing effort. On Tuesday, after a Harvard University study recommended conducting between five million to 20 million COVID-19 tests daily to reopen the American economy safely, Trump sounded confident that the US could surpass five million tests a day “very soon.” Giroir told Time on Tuesday that “there is absolutely no way on Earth, on this planet or any other planet, that we can do 20 million tests a day, or even five million tests a day.”
“PRESIDENT TRUMP’S uneven performances briefing the country about the pandemic has greatly damaged his prospects for reelection,” said Josh Kraushaar, the political editor for National Journal.
“Before the pandemic began, he was planning to run for reelection as the leader who steered the economy to new heights. Now, he’s facing the reality of campaigning in a recession, as the public is growing more critical over his handling of the crisis,” he added.
“Typically, leaders get an initial rally-around-the-leader bounce when handling a crisis, even if it eventually fades. Trump’s bounce lasted barely two weeks and is now steadily trickling downward. He needs to restore public confidence in his leadership in order to turn those numbers around,” Kraushaar noted.
“Trump’s press conferences have become a serious liability. He projects neither empathy nor competence,” said Mark Mellman, president of Democratic Majority for Israel and CEO of The Mellman Group, a Washington-based polling and consulting firm.
“The natural state of a presidential election is to be a referendum on the incumbent,” he continued. “Voters ask themselves whether things have turned out well or poorly on the president’s watch. Few Americans will be able to look at depression level unemployment and tens of thousands dead and think Trump has done a good job. The behavior of Trump and Republican Senate [Majority] Leader [Mitch] McConnell suggests they are wholly dedicated to making things worse for themselves and their party.”
In an interview with Reuters on Wednesday, Trump said he does not expect the election to be a referendum on his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, and added he was surprised the former vice president was doing well.
“I don’t believe the polls,” Trump told Reuters. “I believe the people of this country are smart. And I don’t think that they will put a man in who’s incompetent.”
While it is early to estimate the damage that these recent remarks caused to Trump, we should also keep in mind that the elections are more than six months away. Four years ago, Hillary Clinton had the lead in most of the national polls at that point. And after Trump’s Access Hollywood tape, many people, including top Republicans, thought that he had no chance to win.
“There have been many people who argue they know what’s going on, and I’ll take President Trump’s instincts over all of them,” an administration official told The Jerusalem Post. “I think that politicizing the pandemic is wrong. President Trump is trying to bring information to the public, and it has been proven very helpful. Just today [Wednesday], we had a briefing with Dr. Anthony Fauci about a possible treatment that seems very promising.”
The official said that the White House is not focused on the political consequences of the pandemic. “Right now, the focus is on defeating the virus. If people want to speculate on [what would be the outcome in] November – this is secondary to what the administration is working on. President Trump is communicating with the public in a way that is inspiring the American people.”
The president seemed to recognize that a briefing about the pandemic is not something that needs to take place daily. He tweeted on Saturday: “What is the purpose of having White House News Conferences when the Lamestream Media asks nothing but hostile questions and then refuses to report the truth or facts accurately. They get record ratings, and the American people get nothing but Fake News. Not worth the time and effort!”
In the past week, Trump was notably shifting the spotlight toward the economy. He laid out under what conditions the economy could reopen, promised to improve and increase testing, and reportedly discussed with governors the possibility of opening schools even before the end of this year, to allow parents to return to work.
Before COVID-19, the 2020 election cycle was supposed to be about the economy. If the pandemic subsides in the coming months, the focus of the campaign will surely return to the economy and about the question of who could boost the economy better and faster.
If the economy shows signs of recovery by the fall, no one will remember Trump’s recent gaffes. But if the economy is slow to recover, Trump could struggle in many states that he won in 2016, which suffered lately from massive layoffs because of the pandemic.