Benjamin Netanyahu (L) and Benny Gantz (R).
(photo credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM/THE JERUSALEM POST)
Blue and White will get one more seat than Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud, but the Right-Center bloc will beat the Left-Center bloc by a wide margin, according to the final Jerusalem Post poll taken by Smith Research ahead of Tuesday’s general election.
The poll found that Blue and White will win 28 seats and Likud 27. Twelve more parties would cross the 3.25% electoral threshold. But eleven of them, which are predicted to win only four to six seats, could each end up losing them all on Election Day if they don’t actually cross the threshold (Labor is expected to be out of danger, with nine predicted seats).
The Right-Center bloc will win 68 seats from Likud (27), Union of Right-wing Parties (6), Shas (6), United Torah Judaism (6), New Right (5), Kulanu (5), Yisrael Beytenu (5), Zehut (4) and Gesher (4).
The Left-Center bloc will win 52 mandates from Blue and White (28), Labor (9), Hadash-Ta’al (6), Meretz (5) and United Arab List-Balad (4).
The poll of 1,097 respondents representing a statistical sample of the Israeli adult population was taken Wednesday and Thursday and had a ±3% margin of error.
Two other polls broadcast on television newscasts Thursday had different results. A poll broadcast on Channel 12 predicted a four-seat victory for Blue and White over Likud: 30 to 26.
KAN’s poll predicted that Likud will barely beat Blue and White, 31 seats to 30. The KAN poll found that if Blue and White leaders Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid decide to forego their rotation agreement, their party would gain three seats to 33 and Likud would fall from 31 to 30, giving Blue and White a three-seat victory.
When asked who was most fit to be prime minister in the Channel 12 poll, 36% responded Netanyahu, 35% Gantz and the rest declined to respond or said they did not know.
Asked whether they favored a national unity government of Blue and White and Likud, 37% said yes and 26% said no. The rest declined to respond or aid they did not know.
KAN’s poll of 1,290 people representing a statistical sample of the adult Israeli population had a ±2.9% margin of error.
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