Even more importantly, surely for Israel, the US presence in Syria has to be measured not by the relatively small size of its contingent, not by quantity, but by its symbolic quality. The American soldiers have served as a “wire trip.” By their sheer presence, they deter Russia, Syria, Turkey and Iran from trying to encroach anywhere near their bases, knowing that if American soldiers were killed, the US would beef up its presence and retaliate. Thus they effectively prevented Iran, Turkey and Assad from expanding their control.The US troops are stationed in two areas. The majority of them are in the northeast of Syria in the Kurdish-controlled enclave along the Turkish border. About 10% of them – 250 or so troops – have a garrison in Al-Tanf. This base is of strategic importance especially to Israel and Jordan.Al-Tanf, in southeast Syria, is one of its border crossings with Iraq, relatively not far from the Jordanian border and about 270 kilometers from Israel’s Golan Heights.When the US evacuates Al-Tanf, the shortest land corridor from Tehran to Damascus will be opened for Iran to accomplish its aspirations to reach Lebanon via land and gain access to the Mediterranean.Since Trump came to the White House two years ago, Israeli leaders and security officials laboriously urged the administration to stay in Syria. In every meeting, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, former defense minister Avigdor Liberman, Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Gadi Eisenkot and Mossad chief Yossi Cohen urged their American counterparts to stay in Syria. They argued that only a US presence – albeit small and symbolic – serves as a bulwark against Iran and Russia and will eventually bring about the withdrawal of all foreign forces, Iran, its Shi’ite militias and Hezbollah included. For two years, it seemed that the Israeli arguments were persuasive and convinced Trump. Israel was assisted in its efforts by the most senior administration officials, i.e., Mattis, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security advisers Harold McMaster and his successor, John Bolton. Trump rejected their advice.The challenges that will face Israel from now on are not easy. No doubt Israel will continue to enjoy the diplomatic backing of the US and it is still the strongest military power in the region and can defend itself and its interests. But without a US presence in Syria, it will be much more difficult to deal with the crisis. Despite suffering severe blows by Israel Air Force strikes against its bases, warehouses and shipments of precise missiles to Hezbollah, Iran is now determined more than ever to stay in Syria. It will try once again to establish a foothold near the Israeli border on the Golan Heights and threaten Israel with a second front, in addition to its shared post with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Even before the Trump announcement, Israel’s freedom of action in Syria was limited by Russia. This was a result of the Kremlin’s fury over the downing last September of a Russian spy plane by a Syrian missile during an Israeli raid on Iranian positions. Russia didn’t accept Israeli explanations and decided to limit the free hand it had given the Israeli Air Force to operate in Syrian air space. Now, it seems that Israel’s capability to maneuver there will be even narrower. After Trump’s decision, some Israeli pundits, filled with unrestrained hatred of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, expressed malicious joy. No doubt, the end result is that Israel failed in its policy. But it’s not Netanyahu’s fault. He certainly can be blamed for siding with the Republicans, wholeheartedly supporting Trump, abandoning the Democrats and alienating most of American Jewry, which is 70% in favor of the Democratic Party. By doing so he endangered Israel’s future and exposed it to repercussions when Trump is gone and the Democrats return to power. But on the Syrian front, he did everything in his power to convince Trump not to pull out of Syria.The US decision to withdraw troops from Syria also carries a hidden ramification regarding Israel’s image. For years Israel has diplomatically benefited from the perception – regardless of its proximity to truth – that it has unproportional influence over US politics – Congress and the White House. Turkey asked Israel to help it in preventing Congressional resolutions commemorating its genocide against Armenians in World War I. Azerbaijan and other Asian and African dictatorial regimes asked Israel to intervene on their behalf, when they faced bashing by Washington for their abuses of human rights. When US administrations contemplated cutting defense aid to Jordan and Egypt, Israel advocated and lobbied against it. Now cracks may appear in the perception of Israel as an omnipotent force in American politics.The consequences of Trump’s decision vibrates far beyond Israel. It sends a worrisome message to US allies in the region – Jordan, Egypt, UAE, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, whose relations with Washington were already strained after the brutal murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. The message is loud and clear: the US can’t be trusted.Many wonder now what the US’s next step will be. Will it also order the withdrawal of its 5,200-strong force in Iraq? Unlike in Syria, American troops were invited by the Baghdad government. They serve in various capacities in training the Iraqi army. Vociferous calls have already been sounded in Iraq urging the US to leave. If this happens, it would mean that the US doesn’t care whether the Middle East becomes Russian turf. Such a decision may assure Trump’s hardheaded supporters that there is logic to his madness and that he is loyal to his elections promises of “America First,” to “bring home our boys” and not to be the “policeman of the world.”Surely it will also prove that behind his zigzags there is a grain of ideology: the return of America to its traditional tendencies of isolationism going back to the 20th century during the period between the two World Wars and even further back to the 19th century.Yet such a move would be very bad for the free Western world and democracy. International relations, like nature, abhors a vacuum. With America’s self-imposed abandonment of its global assets and posture, the void will soon be filled with the ambitious emergence of China and Russia. Yossi Melman blogs at www.yossimelman.com and tweets at yossi_melman
