America and Israel – Continuity Or Change?

Supporters – mostly on the American and Israeli left – have tried to argue that a “tough-love” policy towards Israel would prod the peace process ahead.

By DAHLIA SCHEINDLIN
Obama poll 521 (photo credit: Background photo by Reuters)
Obama poll 521
(photo credit: Background photo by Reuters)
Critics of US President Barack Obama ’s Israel policy, largely from the political right and mainstream Jewish communities, believe that he is bad for Israel. Supporters – mostly on the American and Israeli left – have tried to argue that a “tough-love” policy towards Israel would prod the peace process ahead.
But since his election, the critics seem to have been more successful at driving home the message that Obama is just not on Israel’s side, including among Israelis. “Jerusalem Post” polls, for example, have consistently shown that, by a wide margin, Israeli Jews view Obama as less favorable toward Israel than to the Palestinians.
True, some polls have shown a degree of nuance. In a survey published by the Truman Institute at the Hebrew University in August 2009, 43% of Jews thought that Obama is more favorable to Palestinians; 40% said he deals with the sides equally and 7% said he was more favorable to Israel.
But this hasn’t changed the overall perspective of Obama’s critics.
More recently, the Obama Administration has taken a series of steps widely viewed as supportive of Israel. In the lead-up to the Palestinian UN bid for statehood, the Administration clearly stated its intention to cast a veto in the UN Security Council.
When Israel’s Embassy in Cairo was stormed by a mob in late September, President Obama spoke directly to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, then intervened by urging Cairo to protect the embassy and personnel. And at the UN General Assembly in September, Obama directly embraced Israel’s perspective on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The polls in “The Jerusalem Post” registered a leap in Israeli support for Obama: an absolute majority, 54% of Israeli Jews – a leap of more than 40 percentage points from a survey taken in May – said his policies are pro-Israeli. That’s a very large shift even though the two polls used different methodologies and can’t be directly compared.
It seems like simple logic: After two years of being branded as bad for Israel, topped by the crushing loss of a key Congressional district on September 14 that pundits attribute to defections by American Jews, Obama caved in and took the “tough” out of his “love” for Israel.
He probably hopes that positive polls in Israel will help his case among American Jews. Maybe he is also hoping to gain some credibility among Israelis for a potential future negotiation process.
Will it work? With such high stakes, the basic poll questions about whether Obama is “for Israel” or “or the Palestinians” lack depth and complexity. We wondered what Israelis think about why Obama has lately taken these supportive steps and what they make of them.
The Jerusalem Report asked 500 adult Israeli Jews the following question in an Internet sample: “Recently, US President Barack Obama has demonstrated support for Israel in several ways: He intervened in the crisis of the Israeli Embassy in Cairo for Israel, he promised to veto the Palestinians in the UN Security Council, and he represented Israel’s interests clearly in his UN speech. In your opinion, why is Obama doing these things?” We offered four possible answers: “He has always supported Israel.” “He has shifted [his positions] after he learned something about the Middle East over the last two years.” “He needs the Jewish vote for next year’s election.” “He is balanced and might support the Palestinians in the future if he thinks they’re right.”
Just a very small portion said Obama has always been for Israel (five percent). Only six percent said he has learned a thing or two about the Middle East. And just nine percent believed that he has a balanced position toward Israel and the Palestinians – the answer that could have indicated American credibility as a negotiations broker.
Surprisingly, the large majority, over two-thirds (67%) believed that Obama’s actions are based on his need to woo the Jewish vote. In other words, Israelis believe they are completely aware of the politics behind the policy and place little weight on the President’s genuine convictions.
There was no discernible pattern among different demographic groups. Those who were less likely to choose the “election” option – mainly the youngest respondents (60% of whom chose this option) – did so out of lack of knowledge or interest. Indeed, 20% of young respondents said they “don’t know,” in contrast to 13% of the whole sample.
The findings imply, on the one hand, that Israelis have a certain sense of security vis-à-vis America. Since Obama needs the Jewish vote to win, they probably feel he will never push Israel too far.
And since all presidents need Jewish support, according to this logic, Israelis might also believe that Israel can continue its status quo policies without genuine concern for American pressure.
On the other hand, the sense that Obama is “doing it for the votes” and isn’t truly a friend of Israel is likely to reinforce the view that ultimately, Israel is on its own – which provides Israelis with yet another reason to believe that Israel should forge ahead with its policies and shun global criticism.
The problem is that those policies seem to belong to an aging paradigm, in which the majority of the world views Palestinians as the victim; the international community condemns Israel; America defends Israel; and Israel maintains the status quo.
But lately that paradigm seems to be shifting: the Palestinians are acting more like initiators than victims and are viewed as such by the rest of the world. Many states and international actors seem prepared to just leave Israel behind by recognizing Palestinian independence individually, even without UN membership. The US could go home alone with its veto in its hand – and then what? So what can Obama’s new approach towards Israel be expected to accomplish for the president? Even with more positive Israeli surveys, he could still lose the elections – the Jewish vote alone can’t save him if all else goes wrong. And since Israelis interpret his behavior as election calculus, Obama’s recent behavior towards Israel doesn’t seem likely to increase US clout as a negotiations broker.
The US-Israel relationship seems stuck in the status quo. But the region definitely is changing. If the two countries don’t keep pace, how relevant will their sacred, “special” relationship be?