Collision Course

The Palestinians are getting ready to reshuffle the cards with Israel, since they apparently no longer wish to continue to live under the current circumstances.

By DANIEL RUBINSTEIN
IDF soldiers, Palestinian man_521 (photo credit: Reuters)
IDF soldiers, Palestinian man_521
(photo credit: Reuters)
A POPULAR ARABIC saying notes that stagnant water eventually begins to stink and become pestilent. The Palestinians intend to stir up the stagnant waters of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict over the next few months and the pestilence may spread. While it’s not pleasant to take on the mantle of a prophet of doom, it is clear that, given the current circumstances, the Palestinian Authority (PA) and the State of Israel are rapidly proceeding towards a head-on collision.
First and foremost, if there is no breakthrough in the next few months – by the end of the year we may be facing an explosion of violence. This is not merely my assessment, based on my years as a journalist covering the West Bank and Gaza; it’s also what we hear from almost all Palestinian journalists and spokespersons.
Secondly, the PA is intent on pursuing its petition for statehood to the UN. Indeed, from the Palestinians’ point of view, the appeal to the UN is a fait accompli. The free fall in Israel’s relations with Turkey, and the narrow escape by Israeli diplomats from a frenzied mob in Cairo have proved to the Palestinian public just how weak Israel’s position in the region has become. And this apparent weakness has strengthened their determination.
They have refused to give in to pressure from the entire world. Even the Arab states, using the aid they provide to the PA as leverage, have tried to convince PA President Mahmoud Abbas and his men not to go to the UN. In early September, a headline in the daily “al-Quds” newspaper, published in East Jerusalem, read, “Arab states impose a financial siege on the Palestinian Authority.” The headline referred to the fact that the Arab states, together with Europe and the US, contribute approximately two billion dollars annually to cover the Palestinian government’s budget deficit, but this year have only transferred one-third of the promised funding to Ramallah.
As a result, Prime Minister Salaam Fayyad’s government has paid only part of the salaries of the 150,000 civil servants in the West Bank and Gaza, and has not paid many of its suppliers, either. Debts to local banks add up to more than $1 billion. The banks have already informed Fayyad that they will not continue to lend money to a government that lives from hand to mouth, always on the verge of bankruptcy.
Why aren’t the Arab states paying up? The Palestinian press conjectures that the US has hinted to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Emirates, which are the main contributors to the PA, to hold the money back in order to pressure Abbas into canceling his UN bid.
King Abdallah of Jordan and other Arab leaders, as well as several European states, have approached Abbas directly. American emissaries, headed by veteran negotiator Dennis Ross, have visited Ramallah and cautioned (or, to be more precise, threatened) that the US will stop all aid to the PAafter the UN vote.
So far, nothing has deterred Abbas.
“What else can we do?” Palestinian Minister of Information Ghassan al-Khatib rhetorically asked the audience at a recent conference in Haifa, and then added, “We’ve been in direct negotiations with Israel for 20 years, and we’ve made no progress. We have no choice other than to return the discussion to the international community.”
The Oslo Accords set a transitional period of five years, during which the Palestinians and the Israelis were supposed to reach a final agreement. But 17 years have gone by. In other words, Palestinian leaders say, the Oslo Accords have outlasted their usefulness and it’s time for a new agreement.
PALESTINIAN SPOKESPERSONS explain that the PA cannot continue to function under the current circumstances. They believe that they have done everything they can and should do, with no results, and that they are ready for independent statehood.
With tremendous effort, the PA in Ramallah has essentially put an end to terror against Israel. Most of the terrorist cells have been eliminated. Hamas activists are in jail. Under American supervision, Palestinians cooperate with Israel on security.
From the Palestinian point of view, these efforts are primarily for the benefit of Israel and its citizens. In casual conversations on the streets of East Jerusalem, I often hear the opinion that the Palestinian security apparatus enables the IDF forces to penetrate into Palestinian population centers in the big cities, to track down suspects, to make arrests, to eliminate terrorists and to demolish homes. In the eyes of the Palestinian public, this security cooperation is a national humiliation – or worse. “Why should we be Israel’s guard dogs?” they ask.
Everyone knows that the Palestinians also benefit from the relative security in the West Bank. Stability has led to economic growth and a rise in the standard of living. There are fewer checkpoints and the freedom of movement on the roads throughout the West Bank enable the education and health systems to function normally. The Palestinians would be able to view these improvements as reasonable paybacks for their efforts, even at the price of allowing the IDF freedom of movement in the West Bank – but only if there were diplomatic progress.
But this condition isn’t being met. Not only are there no negotiations or progress, not only is the peace process stuck – in Palestinian eyes, even the chance that there ever will be an agreement seems to be slipping away. The settlement project, which the Palestinians regard as the main obstacle to any agreement, is growing.
Jewish towns and villages are expanding – leading to violent confrontations between settlers and Palestinians. Daily, the Palestinian press claims that settlers have set Palestinian fields on fire, destroyed homes, uprooted olive trees, and desecrated mosques. According to these reports, the IDF looks the other way or even actively helps the settlers.
Every day there are reports of new appropriations of land in Samaria (northern West Bank) and tenders for the construction of new Jewish neighborhoods in Jerusalem. Palestinians – and some of the international community – refer to this as ethnic cleansing, and believe that Israel is attempting to drive the Palestinians out of East Jerusalem.
Palestinians ridicule Israel’s claims that it is the only democracy in the Middle East and that it respects freedom of religion and ritual, when tens of thousands of Muslims and Christians in Ramallah, Bethlehem and Hebron cannot pray freely in the Al-Aqsa mosque or in the Church of the Holy Sepulcher because the Israeli authorities, citing security considerations, refuse to allow them entry into Jerusalem. Of course, neither can Israeli civilians travel freely in Palestinian towns and villages for fear of being attacked, and Gaza is totally Judenrein.
The leadership in Ramallah is confident that despite the internal problems, including the split with Hamas, Palestinian society is ready to become an independent state. Over the past few years, the Fayyad government has built up a large number of institutions: government services have been reorganized and function more efficiently; there is an effort to put an end to corruption; institutions such as the Monetary Authority, which acts as a form of central bank, the Central Bureau of Statistics, a central elections committee, and municipal authorities as well as other services are all progressing according to Fayyad’s plan.
That’s the same plan that he presented two years ago, when he promised that the Palestinian Authority would complete the establishment of the necessary institutions by August 2011. And to prove how mature and how prepared for independence Palestinian society really is, the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics published literacy data, according to which, out of nearly 4.5 million Palestinians who live in the West Bank and Gaza, only abut 120,000 are illiterate. “That is one of the lowest rates of illiteracy anywhere in the world,” the bureau boasted. (According to the United Nations Development Program Report 2009, the PA literacy rate was 93.3 percent, number 82 on the world list – Israel at 97.1 percent was 58 on the list.)
AL-JAZEERA, THE PAN-ARAB television station, recently held a panel discussion regarding public opinion in Israel and the Palestinian territories. One of the participants said that over the past decade, the Israeli public has become more right-wing and more hawkish, while another panelist noted that the situation on the West Bank is similar, as increasing numbers of Palestinians show their support for Hamas.
Peace, it would seem, is farther away than ever.
And what will happen after September? What will happen if a majority of nations vote that they are willing to recognize the independent Palestinian state in the 1967 borders?
The Palestinians don’t know, either, but they are not optimistic. Even if Israel becomes increasingly isolated in the international community and even if the legal campaign against Israel intensifies, with appeals to the International Court in The Hague to bring senior Israeli officials to trial – what good will that do the Palestinians? They know that these are long-term processes that won’t change anything in the near future.
And so, at least publicly, the Palestinians say they may play their ultimate trump card and disband the Palestinian Authority. The press is already demanding that the PA issue an ultimatum – if, by a pre-determined date, Israel and the PA do not reach an agreement, then the PA will cease to exist.
Senior Palestinian officials are speaking about this openly. Over the past few weeks, Fayyad has discussed this. Saeb Erekat, head of the Palestinian negotiating team, has explained that since the agreements regarding Palestinian autonomy left the responsibility for the PA’s external borders in Israel’s hands, Israel is still the occupying force in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. According to international conventions, an occupying force has clear responsibilities to maintain law and order and provide services in the territories it is occupying.
Erekat has warned the government of Israel that it cannot continue to shirk its responsibilities and must reach an agreement or deal with the consequences. According to this scenario, if the PA folds, Israel will be forced to reinstate the civil administration and to provide for the well-being of the millions of Palestinians living in the territories.
Are they serious? It’s difficult to know. But it is clear that at this stage, the Palestinians no longer wish, and apparently are not able, to continue to live under the current circumstances.