Erdogan ditching diplomacy dogs DC

Officials and observers of the Israel-Turkey relationship in Washington are baffled by Ankara’s unprecedented new (and sharp) tack with Jerusalem.

By YIGAL SCHLEIFER WASHINGTON, DC
Turkish Navy officers 521 (photo credit: Umit Bektas/Reuters)
Turkish Navy officers 521
(photo credit: Umit Bektas/Reuters)
BETWEEN THE UPCOMING vote on Palestinian statehood at the United Nations, the uprising in Syria and, of course, the ongoing military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, the last thing the United States needs is another diplomatic headache to deal with.
Which helps explain why the recent complete breakdown in Turkey-Israel relations – something American diplomats worked feverishly to try and avoid – and Ankara’s subsequent turning up of its rhetoric against Jerusalem, has been received in Washington with a sense of dismay and with growing questions about just what is driving the Turkish show of pique.
“As difficult as the Israeli government might be, the way the Turks have been playing this out has made life much more difficult for Washington,” says Henri Barkey, an expert on Turkey-US relations at Lehigh University. “I think American policymakers probably think that the Turks are very important and are very critical in many different areas. But do they appreciate the way they are doing business? No.”
Following the leaking earlier this month of the UN’s Palmer report on last year’s Gaza flotilla incident and Israel’s continued refusal to meet Turkey’s demand for an apology, Ankara deployed its long-threatened “Plan B” – expelling the Israeli ambassador and downgrading diplomatic relations, suspending military agreements, and promising to help the families of flotilla victims pursue Israel in international courts. At the time, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu warned, somewhat ominously, that Turkey would “take whatever measures it deems necessary in order to ensure the freedom of navigation in the eastern Mediterranean.”
Soon after, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan upped the ante by saying Turkish warships might even accompany any future aid convoys and went on to call Israel “the West’s spoiled child.” During his recent tour of Egypt, Libya and Tunisia, Erdogan again lashed out at Israel, telling a meeting of the Arab League in Cairo: “Israel acts irresponsibly and without hesitation in smashing human dignity and international law.”
MANY OBSERVERS FIND THE escalating rhetoric perplexing. “I think across the aisle, left, right and center, there’s puzzlement in Washington bordering on dismay over what appears to be the Turkish government’s crusade against Israel. I think what rankles most are the veiled references to the militarization of the eastern Mediterranean,” says an analyst at a prominent Washington think tank, who has worked extensively in both Turkey and Israel. The analyst asked not to be named because of ongoing work in both countries.
“I think people are scratching their heads, wondering if this has more to do with domestic politics in Turkey or instead with deepseated beliefs of the leadership cadre in Turkey. Either way it spells trouble.”
In his meeting with Erdogan on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, President Barack Obama was expected to have raised the question of Turkey’s faltering relations with Israel. “The U.S. has longstanding friendships with both Israel and Turkey,” an administration official tells The Report. “We hope they will continue to look for opportunities to improve their long-standing relationship, and we will encourage both to work towards that end.”
The diplomatic crisis between Turkey and Israel leaves Washington “caught between two longtime allies,” as Barkey and Morton Abramowitz, a former US ambassador to Turkey, wrote in a recent op-ed in “The Washington Post.”
But the two veteran Turkey observers also say that Ankara’s rhetorical threats against Israel creates a problem for American policy in the Middle East.
“By threatening to militarily contest Israel’s blockade of Gaza – which was deemed legal by the UN Palmer Commission – the Turkish government has laid down a serious challenge to American policy,” they write. “Danger stems not just from potential miscommunication between those two countries but also from third parties with their own agendas, creating conditions for confrontation.”
The question right now is how much leverage does Washington have over Ankara? The answer right now may be – not that much. On the same day it announced its sanctions against Israel, Ankara also said it was joining a US-led missile defense shield program that is (unofficially) aimed at countering Iran, a move that seemed to underline Turkey’s strategic importance for Washington during this uncertain period in the Middle East.
And while Congress could punish Turkey for its treatment of Israel through the greater scrutiny of arms sales or even the introduction of an Armenian genocide bill, Ankara appears to believe – with some justification – that its lobbying operation in Washington is now strong enough to counteract any moves like that.
“Obama had to address the Israel issue when he met with Erdogan and likely asked him to cam down the rhetoric. But beyond that, what can the Americans do in the short term?” asks Barkey rhetorically.