Hezbollah gunman in Beirut_370.
(photo credit: Reuters)
BEIRUT - Lebanon's powerful Shi'ite terrorist group Hezbollah has publicly tied its future to Syrian President Bashar Assad, but as the tide turns against the Syrian president it is silent on whether it will join the fight to support him.
The stakes are high for the group which fears that toppling Assad will pave the way for increased Western pressure - if not war - on its strongest ally and founder, Shi'ite Iran. By losing Assad the group would also be deprived of its strategic partner and main supply line for its arsenal.
"Hezbollah is at a point of enormous strategic uncertainty. (Syria's uprising) is not an existential threat, they are too well armed. But now they face a threat from two sides," a Western diplomat in Lebanon said, referring to Hezbollah's foe Israel and a potentially hostile post-Assad Syria.
Hezbollah has shown no sign of abandoning Assad and Lebanese officials close to the group say it won't stand idle if the battle worsens. Some said it will fight Israel. Others said it will deploy some of its fighters to secure the border with Lebanon, from which rebels are attacking Syrian frontier posts.
They also said Hezbollah is bracing for the fighting in Syria to be long and hard.
"They cannot distance themselves. What is happening now is fateful for them," said Lebanese analyst Jihad al-Zein. "Their alliance with Syria is strategic and was formed with the Assad family."
"They do not have a choice - they are with the regime until the last minute. This is a strategic alliance between Iran and Syria and they are part of it," he added.
Hezbollah believes that its enemies, including the West and Israel, are working to reshape the Middle East by replacing Assad with a ruler hostile to it.
In a region riven by a Sunni-Shi'ite divide, Assad belongs to the Alawite sect that is an offshoot of Shi'ite Islam. A new Sunni Muslim leadership is unlikely to favor the Shi'ite Hezbollah.All options on the table
While Hezbollah supported the revolts in the Arab world that toppled the leaders of Egypt, Tunis and Libya, it responded to the initially largely peaceful protests in Syria by saying it backed Assad's promises of reform.
"Hezbollah will definitely take part in the war if Syria faces foreign intervention. It sees the whole campaign on Assad as a campaign to target resistance," a second Lebanese official said, using the label for armed groups opposed to Israel.
For now, they say Hezbollah has been watching the unrest in Syria. It banned officials and members from publicly talking about the revolt, leaving its leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah as the only voice of the group, reiterating his support for Assad.
A year ago, officials close to Hezbollah denied Syrian opposition accusations that it was sending fighters to help Assad's forces. The same officials now say this might change if there is foreign intervention or Assad is weakened.
"So far, Assad does not need more fighters. His army is more than capable of dealing with this. He does not need Hezbollah's fighters. They are only a few thousands and he has hundreds of thousands," a Lebanese security official said.
But another official said "this is a war and in wars all options are on the table... What is important is that the Damascus supply line remains open to Hezbollah. It is willing to do whatever it takes to keep it like that."
Hezbollah's view can be encapsulated in the comments of a senior Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander who said on Tuesday that any foreign power intervening in Syria would suffer "decisive blows", specifically referring to "hated Arabs" - a veiled reference to regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
Damascus has accused Saudi Arabia and Qatar of channeling weapons and money to rebels fighting Assad's forces. Activists say more than 17,000 people have been killed in the 16-month uprising against his rule.