Analysts: Syria wants Obama to win; HU expert: Livni better than Netanyahu for talks with Damascus.
By BRENDA GAZZARassad happy 248.88(photo credit: AP)
Syria is keeping a close eye on the outcomes of the upcoming US presidential and Israeli elections, particularly after Sunday's US raid on a Syrian compound has raised questions about the future of US-Syrian relations and American foreign policy in the region.
"The big question is whether this [strike] is a change of policy by the US, which affects the way it deals with not only Syria but also Iran and certain areas of Pakistan," said Nadim Shehadi, an associate fellow of the Middle East Program at the London-based Chatham House. "A change of policy would mean that the US will go into hot pursuit where it thinks that there are terrorists being sent into Iraq and Afghanistan."
Shehadi said that the Syrians have already decided there can be no improvement in US-Syrian relations between now and the new US administration. Syrian officials are counting on a radical change in US policy with the new administration, which implies they are expecting a victory for Democrat Barack Obama - the candidate calling for change, he said.
"Syria wants Obama," says Prof. Joshua Landis, co-director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Oklahoma. "They believe he will get out of Iraq sooner and give better relations with Syria a try. They are careful but hopeful…. They know that McCain was an early supporter of the war [in Iraq] and said that Syria and Iran would be next."
McCain's advisers have also criticized Obama for saying he would talk to Syrian President Bashar Assad, he said.
"Like [French President Nicolas] Sarkozy and the Europeans, Obama might go with a warming and the use of carrots," Landis said. "Obama said he would listen to other world powers. It would mean a chance to normalize relations, get back a US ambassador and get US support for negotiations with Israel."
But some experts argue that additional engagement with Syria might not bring about the desired results. While Europeans think that the policy of isolating Syria has led the country to support insurgents in Iraq and groups like Hizbullah and Hamas, Syria believes that its policy of being a spoiler has succeeded and is the reason why the world is running to engage with it, Shehadi said.
"If you engage Syria on the basis of what Syria understands, then it won' t have incentive to stop its policies," Shehadi said. " It could be the case that once you engage Syria, it will only do more of what it thinks has led to the engagement."
The Syrians are also "very concerned" about who will become the next prime minister in Israel, Landis said. The worry is that Binyamin Netanyahu, one of the leading candidates for the country's top post, would team up with Syria's opponent Saudia Arabia to try to harm Syria and the peace talks.
"Rather than try to continue the talks, he could push a new US team with Saudi help to convince them not to put stock in improved US-Syrian relations," Landis said. "He could propose some plan of pressure and continued isolation on Syria. This would be very bad for Syria."
While Syrians don't really know Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, they hoped she would pick up where Olmert left off with negotiations.
"Olmert's opening to Syria was very helpful," Landis said.
Indeed, as far as the Syrians are concerned, "Tzipi is [certainly] better than Bibi because he is against relinquishing the Golan, even for peace," said Moshe Maoz, a professor emeritus of Islamic and Middle Eastern Studies at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
But others argue that Syria is very comfortable with the current state of internal politics in Israel since it gives them more time to avoid making any decisions when it comes to the Jewish state.
"They can blame all the paralysis on Israel," Shehadi said. "What the Syrians want is to end the isolation that it is in and the peace talks are a part of ending the isolation."
AP contributed to this report.
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