Trump’s decision on December 19, made after a December 14 call with Erdogan, shocked the Kurds in eastern Syria. They have sought discussions with Damascus, Cairo and Moscow to see who will step into the vacuum left when the US withdraws. Trump’s advisers were also concerned. Secretary of Defense James Mattis and anti-ISIS envoy Brett McGurk resigned over the decision. That has left Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Bolton to shore up US allies in the region and work out the Syria withdrawal mess. Pompeo warned in early January that the US would not allow the Kurds to be slaughtered in a Turkish operation. Bolton visited Turkey on January 8 vowing to tell Ankara not to attack US Kurdish partners in eastern Syria.Instead, Erdogan refused to meet Bolton, widely seen as a snub. Turkey said that the US was casting aspersions on its treatment of Kurds. Erdogan said that those who make such claims are not familiar with the facts on the ground in Syria and that Turkey wanted only to ensure security in Syria and to fight terrorism.While US advisers to Trump have sought to slow down the withdrawal and make sure that US partners who played a central role in defeating ISIS are protected, the Trump administration has appeared to reverse course again and again on its Syria policy. Although the administration says it is leaving it also has now vowed to stand by the Kurds. It also continues to want Iran to leave Syria. Pompeo’s visit to the region was aimed at confronting Iran and he said in the UAE that he was optimistic an agreement could be reached with Turkey.The latest US-Turkey discussion about a 32 km.-buffer zone or “safe zone,” as Turkey calls it, has left more question marks. If Turkey seeks to push into eastern Syria and secure a swath of territory along the border, most of the major Kurdish populated areas will be occupied by Turkish forces in such an operation. This is because most of the Kurdish population lives along the border with Turkey. How can the US come to an agreement which enables a Turkish operation to create a “safe zone” while preventing fighting between Turkey and the YPG or SDF? Turkey says that the US has affirmed that it supports this safe zone plan. This once again shows that Washington and Ankara appear to diverge on basics of how a Turkish operation will unfold.What happens in eastern Syria has larger regional consequences. The Syrian regime will seek to return to the areas from which the US withdraws. Moscow will want to broker that return as Moscow has done in southern Syria and Idlib. This sets up a potential embarrassment for Washington as Russia becomes the arbiter over dividing up the spoils left behind by Washington. Moscow will look like the cautious and reliable partner to Turkey, Syria and Iran, as it has been at peace talks in Astana, Sochi and Geneva, while the US appears to have a policy that lacks clarity.Israel’s views matter here as well. Bolton visited Israel before Turkey and Pompeo’s Cairo speech underlined the importance of confronting Iran. Jerusalem has been speaking more openly about its operations against Iran in Syria. Israel wants Iran to withdraw from Syria, but the US withdrawal potentially enables Iran to grow its influence, not shrink its power in Syria.
Turkey says it will create Syria buffer zone after Trump call
Mixed messages from Trump-Erdogan discussion continue to leave region wondering what comes next in eastern Syria
