Iran’s media has bragged that Israel is facing its highest ever rate of rocket fire from Gaza. This is a message to Hezbollah that in a future war, a large number of rockets fired at Israel might tip the conflict in Iran’s favor. This is also the narrative pushed by Hamas.
But is it true? How many rockets have been fired and how fast?
What we know is based on IDF statements about the number of rockets fired. On the first day of the conflict, May 10, 150 rockets were fired from Gaza and dozens intercepted by the Iron Dome defense system. Some rockets fell short in Gaza and some fell in open areas, so they did not all need to be intercepted.
The system has an approximate 90% success rate intercepting rockets. Up until last Monday, it intercepted 2,500 rockets in ten years since first being declared operational in 2011. This number is important considering the fact it had to intercept some 1,200 rockets in the past week fired from Gaza. Hamas’s level of rocket fire, precision and speed of rockets clearly led to the system needing to intercept large numbers, more than in many years before.
In May 2019, experts estimated the arsenal of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad at around 5,000 to 20,000 rockets. In November 2018, during several days of fighting, it was estimated some 400 rockets were fired at Israel. In May 2019, another outbreak of fighting led to 700 rockets fired at Israel. We know that in 2019, a total of 1,500 rockets were fired from Gaza and that from 2017 to 2019, a total of 2,600 rockets were fired.
Back in 2014, Israel said that “when Hamas and other terrorist organizations fired over 60 rockets at Israel from the Gaza Strip on July 7, the Government of Israel was left with no choice but to launch an aerial campaign, termed Operation ‘Protective Edge.’” In that conflict, “Hamas and other terrorist organizations launched more than 4,500 rockets and mortars.”
That was from July 6 to August 26. Prior to that, war rockets had not reached as far and the volume of fire had been less. Two decades ago, Hamas rockets could only reach a few kilometers, but now they reach 250 km.
By Tuesday at 7 p.m., 480 rockets had been fired at Israel. That is 480 in 24 hours. Iron Dome had intercepted around 200. We know that by May 12, 2021, some 800 rockets had been fired at Israel. By Thursday at just after midnight, Israel said, “at this time, approximately 1,500 rockets have been fired from the Gaza Strip towards Israeli territory, of which approximately 350 failed launches fell in the Gaza Strip. The Iron Dome Aerial Defense System intercepted hundreds of rockets.”
By 7 p.m., that number had increased to 1,750 rockets. By Friday, 24 hours later, 2,000 rockets had been fired and 1,000 intercepted. By Saturday at 7 a.m., 12 hours later, a total of 2,300 rockets had been fired. By 7 p.m. on Sunday May 16, a total of 3,100 had been fired, 450 of which fell in Gaza or failed and 1,210 intercepted.
Those are the numbers we know about. What it tells us is that the first 24 hours saw 480 rockets fired. That number had increased a lot by Wednesday night, when it appears that almost 1,000 rockets were fired in a 24-hour period. The next day did not see so many launched – several hundred it appears. The same was true for the 24 hours which ended on Friday at 7 p.m., and this volume continued through Saturday morning.
Then came a 36-hour period from Saturday morning to Sunday afternoon when 800 rockets were fired. That appears to be an uptick again. Either way, what we know is that basically a week of rocket fire has seen around 400-500 fired a day. This is similar to the volume of fire seen in the 2018 and 2019 flare ups but the rate of fire over the past week appears to have included barrages of 130 rockets in a few minutes.
This attempt to blanket cities with rockets appears to be a new strategy and this is what Iran’s media says when it says the number of rockets fired is more than in the past. Clearly, Hamas has changed some of its tactics and learned from past conflicts. It has also consistently used longer range rockets aimed at Ashkelon, a change from the past.