How Mossad affected the oil market

Israelis proved the existence of the Iran’s nuclear program waiting for the moment to be activated. The evidences of the possibility to deal with an Iranian nuclear weapon pushed U.S. President Donald Trump to reconsider the 2015 nuclear deal and restart sanctions against Tehran.

The main sense of the smuggled Iranian documents

Speaking precisely, the existence of the frozen program of a nuclear weapon creation has been evident since 2007 when US Intelligence had reported about the Iranian nuclear military program. Before signing up the nuclear deal in 2015, inspectors of the IAEA expressed their doubts regarding the access to all of the objects dealing with atomic energy in Iran. Nevertheless, the agreement was signed by representatives of 5+1 countries, EU authorities, and Iran. In August 2017, Ali Akbar Salehi, one of Iran’s vice presidents, claimed that the country could achieve 20% enriched uranium in “at most five days” and then proceed further processing it into weapon-grade nuclear material according to the Independent newspaper. Thus, the documents revealed by Mossad conform to the CIA old report and a declaration of an Iranian vice president. What is new in the Israeli PM B. Netanyahu presentation, there is the accessibility of the Islamic Republic top secrets and the power of the Israeli Intelligence Agency. B. Netanyahu announced to the city and to the world that there are no more inaccessible secrets when Israel secures the country and the people.

Tehran understands the message

Tehran has got the message. The authorities reminded the “a wolf and a boy” story about a shepherd crying for help without any reason, who had lost the confidence, and compared the Israeli PM with the shepherd. Meanwhile, the people of Iran “were laughing at the Islamic regime on social media”. The weakness of the Islamic Republic, suffering from the disagreement between Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps officials and rival ayatollahs, were exposed in the period of mass protests in early 2018. The U.S., U.K. and Germany accepted the Israeli offer to restrain the nuclear industry of Iran and wil reconsider the 2015 agreement, while France has reaffirmed support to the agreement, which is needed to be expanded and include other issues. Russia is backing up Tehran, Putin’s ally in Syria and oil business during the sanctions period. The probability of new anti-Iranian sanctions is extremely high. The situation in the Middle East is hot and volatile these May days.

Market factors prevail over the geopolitical turbulence

The oil market reacted immediately. The oil prices have been growing up until the most recent report from the U.S. inventories this Wednesday. The crude stocks rise by 6.2 M barrels; the raise was unpredictable. WTI was traded $67.80 per barrel, Brent - $73.15 during the evening session on May 2. So the inner market factors prevail over the geopolitical turbulence at the moment. Meanwhile, the new American anti-Iran sanctions could cut the Tehran’s 2019 oil export by 700,000 barrels a day. Right now OPEC’s third-biggest producer is exporting 2.61 million barrels a day, shipping 1.4 million barrels to China and Iran, according to the Iranian Oil Ministry’s Shana news service. Thus, the potential cut of the export could reduce the current shipping by more than a quarter.