A loss of about $1 billion in productivity for the US economy, estimated damage of about half a billion dollars in Britain, and an estimated hit of NIS 75 million to NIS 170 million to the daily output of the Israeli economy - this is the estimated economic price tag for the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA 6), which will hit the market this coming Thursday.
Human resources platforms such as American BambooHR and British BrightHR, which monitor millions of workers across tens of thousands of businesses in real time, identified an unusual jump of dozens of percents in approved vacation requests for November 19 compared to the previous year.
Prof. Jose García Montalvo, an economist at Pompeu Fabra University in Barcelona, estimated in late October that about 1.5 million American workers, who make up about 1% of employees in the US, are expected to be absent from work on Thursday due to the game's launch.
Based on an average annual output of about $70,000 per worker in the US, Montalvo estimated that the absence will lead to a drop of about 2% in labor productivity and detract about $1 billion from the US economy within a single day.
A consumer and employment survey conducted by the British price-comparison company Uswitch estimated that 2.56 million workers will be absent from work on the day the game is released, at an estimated cost of £403.5 million to the British economy, which is about half a billion dollars.
Montalvo noted that the primary absentees will be men aged 18 to 30, and that the technology sector will be the one to absorb the most significant blow. The rate of Gen Z members among launch vacationers is expected to stand at about 32%, according to the BambooHR survey, alongside millennials (aged 30-45), whose rate is expected to stand at 27%.
And what is expected to happen in Israel?
There is no official estimate for the game's impact on employment in Israel, but a combination of Israeli labor market data with cultural adjustments makes it possible to estimate the scope of the phenomenon.
About 4.45 million people are currently employed in Israel at an average gross daily wage per employee position of about NIS 675, with the game being launched on a Thursday, which for the Israeli worker, unlike his counterparts in Europe and the US, is the end of the work week. Taking a single day of vacation or sick leave allows the Israeli worker to create a bridge of three consecutive days of gaming (Thursday to Saturday).
The projection model for the Israeli economy therefore estimates that between 42,000 and 95,000 Israeli workers will be absent from work this coming Thursday, which is about 1% to 2.1% of the workforce. The loss of output for the economy is estimated as a result at about NIS 75 million to NIS 170 million in daily output.
However, unlike the rest of the world, the focus of absenteeism in the civilian market in Israel is expected to be concentrated among recently discharged soldiers, students, and workers aged 22-35, and mainly in the high-tech and business services sector - a sector numbering about 400,000 workers who enjoy high occupational flexibility, accrued vacation balances, and the possibility of hybrid work.
Employers, however, have already begun preparing for the wave of sudden flu, and some have even embraced the new reality. Swiss-American gaming and computing equipment giant Logitech, for example, announced in the middle of last week that it will grant all 7,000 of its employees worldwide a planned paid day off for the launch day of GTA 6, and even branded it as Logi Game Day.
The ratings company Worldworthy also announced that it will allow its employees to take up to three paid days of vacation in honor of the launch, out of an understanding that an employee who stays home with permission will return to work more committed than an employee who tries to play in hiding while working from home.
The development and marketing costs of the sixth game in the GTA series have reportedly crossed the $2 billion mark, with the series considered one of the most profitable entertainment brands in history. Its predecessor, GTA 5, sold over 200 million copies and brought its creator, Rockstar Games, about $8.5 billion - a figure that makes the game the most profitable entertainment product of all time.
Worker absenteeism worldwide on the launch day of the previous game in the series is among the things that led to employers' early preparation this time as well. Back then, a survey by the gaming website IGN conducted ahead of the launch of the fifth game in the series in 2013 found that 46% of participants declared taking a day off in advance in honor of the game's launch, and about 20% admitted they intended to call their workplace on the morning of the launch and report sick.
For human resources managers in Israel and around the world, Thursday will be a test of their ability to contain the effects of the gaming era on the labor market.