AI-led investment is helping the global economy hold up marginally better than expected this year, but the energy shock is becoming more entrenched, weighing on the outlook for 2027, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said on Wednesday.
After 3.4% growth last year, the global economy is set to slow to 2.9% growth in 2026, slightly better than the 2.8% forecast in June, the OECD said in its interim economic outlook.
Heading into 2027, the commodity price shock caused by the Middle East conflict is expected to weigh on momentum, and the OECD forecasts global growth picking up to only 3.0%, from 3.1% in June.
Spending on AI infrastructure makes up key pillar of economic resilience
The OECD said strong spending on AI infrastructure, from data centers to semiconductors, has been a key pillar of resilience this year, boosting growth in the United States and lifting technology exports from Japan and Korea.
However, it warned the global outlook was particularly clouded by the potential for energy market jitters, extreme weather related to a strong El Niño, surging government bond yields and disappointing AI investment returns.
If those risks materialized, the OECD estimated they could together reduce global growth by 0.7 percentage points next year and raise global inflation by 1.1 percentage points.
In the OECD's baseline outlook, inflation in G20 economies was seen at 4.1% in 2026, up from 4.0% forecast in June. The OECD also raised its 2027 forecast to 3.6%, from 3.1% in June, which it said could force central banks to adjust interest rates if price pressures broaden out or growth falters.
Divergent outlooks among global economies
In the US, the world's largest economy, growth is seen at 2.2% this year and 2.1% in 2027, both upgrades from June, as heavy AI-related investment offsets weaker consumer spending. US inflation is projected to hit 3.6% in 2026, easing to 2.6% in 2027 with tariffs and higher energy prices weighing on household purchasing power and business costs.
China's growth is expected to slow to 4.5% this year and 4.2% in 2027, unchanged from June, as Beijing's curbs on excess industrial capacity weigh on investment even as consumption faces a gradual pick-up in inflation.
Eurozone growth is seen holding at 1.0% in both 2026 and 2027, with higher energy prices and interest rates weighing on activity before new defense spending initiatives provide support.
Eurozone inflation is forecast at 3.0% this year and 2.9% in 2027, driven partly by a jump in natural gas prices as European storage levels sit at 15-year lows heading into the winter heating period.
Japan's economy is expected to grow 0.8% in 2026 and 0.7% in 2027, with rising policy rates and costlier energy imports offsetting strong business investment. Unlike other major economies, Japan's inflation is expected to accelerate to 2.6% in 2027 from 1.8% this year, reflecting a tight labor market and strong wage growth.
Canada's 2026 growth forecast was cut to 0.9% from 1.2% in June, while its 2027 outlook was lowered to 1.3% from 1.7% due to the new US tariffs on Canadian exports.