A new forecast report on Visa’s global payments industry presents a fairly clear picture of 2026, a year in which the way we pay, shop, and manage money is expected to change at a faster pace than usual.
One of the main trends highlighted in the report is the entry of AI agent-driven commerce into the mainstream. After years of shifting from physical stores to online and mobile commerce, the next stage is smart agents making actual purchases on behalf of consumers. Users set a secure payment method, share their preferences and shopping habits, and set spending limits. From there, the agent scans commercial sites, compares prices, and makes decisions according to the profile built for it. According to the report, shopping experiences of this kind are expected to become common during 2026.
At the same time, the report points to the accelerated decline of the manual cash register. Entering card numbers, expiration dates, and security codes is becoming increasingly rare, while digital wallets and smart purchase buttons shorten the payment process and reduce errors and fraud.
The data illustrates the shift: The share of online payments made by entering card details fell from nearly half of transactions in 2019 to just about 16 percent in 2025. Among the 25 largest e-commerce sites, the figure is even lower, in part thanks to more than 16 billion Visa tokens currently in global circulation. “By 2026, the manual cash register will become a relic of the past - much like the dial-up modem,” the report notes.
With this development comes a darker side. Criminals are also adopting the technology, using deepfakes, agent-based fraud, and synthetic identities. Whereas fraud previously occurred transaction by transaction, artificial intelligence now enables attacks at an earlier stage - full identity theft through especially sophisticated impersonation. Once an identity is compromised, all associated transactions are at risk.
By 2026, a significant increase is expected in both the sophistication and scale of AI-based identity attacks. Addressing this will require broad collaboration among banks, merchants, fintechs, government agencies, and regulators. No single entity can tackle the challenge alone, and shared technologies and capabilities will become critical. Visa anticipates playing a central role in this expanded defense framework.
Another area that receives central attention in the report is stablecoins. Stablecoins, pegged to fiat currencies like the dollar and euro, are expected in the coming years to transition from limited uses to integration into broader payment flows. The infrastructure is already in place, and the report estimates that in 2026 we will see significant growth in trials and applications of programmable money, fast clearing, and new payment experiences - with the market potentially reaching around $4 trillion by 2030.
Despite all this, the report clarifies that cash has not yet disappeared. About $11 trillion continues to circulate in the global economy, and the use of physical money will remain relevant in the coming years. However, the pace of its use is slowing. For the first time, half of consumer payments worldwide are expected to be made via card-based payment methods, illustrating the depth and direction of the shift to digital.
“2026 is expected to be a pivotal year for the world of payments,” the report concludes. AI agent-driven commerce will become widespread, payment experiences will be smoother than ever, identity attacks will intensify, stablecoins will reach new adoption levels, and global reliance on digital payments will deepen. Today’s innovation is rapidly becoming tomorrow’s standard.