Why Trump’s Tokyo trip matters for Israel’s security - opinion

When US President Donald Trump lands in Tokyo later this week, his meeting with Japan’s new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, will be more than a symbolic encounter between two conservative leaders. It will mark the opening act of Japan’s most assertive security realignment in decades, a moment when Tokyo seeks to balance Washington’s pressure, deepen its regional defense networks, and redefine its own strategic autonomy.

Under Japan’s new National Security Strategy and Defense Buildup Plan, Tokyo has committed to doubling defense spending to 2% of GDP by 2027 and acquiring counter-strike capabilities, including US-made Tomahawk missiles and an upgraded domestically produced Type-12 missile with a range of up to 1,000 kilometers.

These steps represent a historical break with Japan’s pacifist tradition and align with the evolving US–Japan Guidelines for Defense Cooperation, which outline coordinated responses to contingencies, joint operations, and information-sharing mechanisms from peacetime to wartime.

Takaichi’s government also emphasizes adaptation to “new warfare realities” from drone swarms and cyberattacks to hybrid conflict signaling a modernization drive that seeks both technological autonomy and operational flexibility. Her foreign minister, Toshimitsu Motegi, framed it succinctly: “Our national defense should be based on our own independent decision.”

Trump’s visit will test the resilience of the US–Japan alliance. On one hand, Washington will expect Tokyo to accelerate defense spending and shoulder greater costs for hosting 50,000 US troops. On the other, Japan is seeking greater strategic independence- not defiance.

Trump is likely to push for a faster pace of procurement and expanded purchases of US weapons systems. Yet, Takaichi will emphasize Japan’s sovereign decision-making and long-term commitment to shared deterrence. Economically, she faces domestic pressure to renegotiate tariffs, particularly on Japan’s automotive exports, still facing a 15% US import duty despite massive Japanese investments in America’s industrial base.

In that sense, Takaichi’s diplomacy will mirror that of her mentor, Shinzo Abe, maintaining warmth with Washington while ensuring Tokyo’s voice remains firm and distinct.

While some in Tokyo once floated the idea of an “Asian NATO,” the concept failed to gain traction among regional partners wary of antagonizing China. Instead, Japan under Takaichi is embracing “minilateralism” - building flexible, issue-specific defense partnerships.

At the core of this approach lies India. For Japan, New Delhi represents both an ideological ally and a strategic counterweight to China. Their partnership spans the QUAD framework (alongside the US and Australia) but also extends into bilateral defense exercises, maritime domain awareness cooperation, and joint technology projects in cyber and critical infrastructure.

Takaichi views India as a regional stabilizer and an equal partner in shaping a Free and Open Indo-Pacific. The Japan–India axis offers Tokyo an avenue to project power without triggering regional alarm, a pragmatic balance between deterrence and diplomacy.

By strengthening ties with India, Japan effectively diversifies its security ecosystem beyond dependence on Washington, anchoring its regional role on shared democratic values, blue-economy cooperation, and supply-chain resilience.

For Israel, Japan’s current strategic trajectory offers two clear lessons.

1. Defense Autonomy within Alliance Structures

Japan’s effort to balance US expectations with self-reliance mirrors Israel’s own need to maintain operational independence while preserving deep US coordination. Both countries operate within American-led ecosystems yet rely increasingly on indigenous innovation to ensure credible deterrence.

2. Technology as Deterrence Multiplier

Japan’s focus on drones, AI-enabled ISR, and missile defense parallels Israel’s core strengths. Collaborative R&D in counter-UAS systems, maritime autonomy, and cyber resilience could transform Israel–Japan relations from commercial cooperation into a true strategic technology partnership.

Trump’s Tokyo visit will dramatize tensions between alliance dependence and strategic sovereignty, a balancing act both Japan and Israel know well. For Japan, Takaichi’s leadership marks the emergence of a more assertive, self-assured security identity, one that retains America’s shield but wields its own sword when necessary. For Israel, Japan’s evolution is more than a regional story; it is a strategic mirror reflecting how small and medium democracies can modernize, innovate, and deter within US-anchored systems while safeguarding autonomy.

In that sense, the meeting between Trump and Takaichi is not just about the future of East Asia. It’s about the future of allied resilience in an era where technology, autonomy, and deterrence are the real currencies of power.