In an unprecedented display of cooperation and coordination US and Israel have launched a joint war against Iran. Not since 1956 has Israel entered a campaign alongside a global superpower, with Britain and France as its allies. Yet unlike the Sinai War, when the United States and the USSR forced Israel to stop, strategic and operational coordination with the world’s strongest power appears near-perfect.
Operation Roaring Lion, aka Epic Fury, marks a strategic inflection point, repositioning Israel as a preferred US security partner – willing and capable to share operational risk and defense burdens alongside Washington.
It is essential to emphasize that Israel did not initiate this conflict: The crisis escalated amid widespread internal unrest in Iran, as citizens rose against a regime responsible for the recent massacre of over 30,000 of its own people.
US President Donald Trump’s commitment to supporting the Iranian people helped shape the trajectory that led to coordinated action, together with Iran’s bad-faith conduct in negotiations.
This is not a war against the Iranian people, but against a violent, extremist regime that brutalized its citizens, caused the deaths of many American and Israeli civilians, and derives its legitimacy from the ideology of “Death to America” and “Death to the West,” with Israel’s destruction as a core interest.
The dismantlement of the Islamic Republic safeguards the vital interests of both nations and the broader Western world, and addresses an ongoing threat to regional and global stability.
Israel and the US should now pursue two vital strategic objectives: First, to strip Iran of its ability to harm Israel through ballistic missiles, UAVs, terrorist organizations, and the potential for a nuclear bomb.
Second, and no less important, to weaken the regime and create the conditions for its replacement.
Success on both tracks can lay the foundation for a positive strategic shift in the Middle East for years to come, advancing prosperity, normalization, peace, and stability.
The first objective – delivering a dramatic blow to Iran’s military capabilities – is now being pursued by the Israeli Air Force (IAF) and CENTCOM.
The campaign over the future of Iran’s regime is harder to execute and should be assessed more cautiously, even in light of Israel’s impressive success, which leveraged operational surprise to eliminate the supreme leader and over 40 senior figures in Iran’s political and military leadership.
Strategic coordination
The current targeted strikes underscore a clear disparity in military capabilities, with Israel enjoying a decisive edge in air power, technology, intelligence, and the ability to integrate these elements into a single operational system. There are very few countries able to combine precise intelligence with real-time strike capabilities the way Israel does, hitting targets 1,800 kilometers away with pinpoint accuracy.
In remarkable strategic coordination, the US is also operating on two parallel tracks, striking key elements of Iran’s military power while simultaneously creating conditions for regime change in Iran.
Trump has made clear that his primary concern is “freedom for the people,” and has urged Iranians to seize this historic moment of opportunity to throw off the yoke of their extreme and repressive regime.
In a speech recorded before the campaign began, Trump presented additional objectives: preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, which he said the US would never allow; destroying Iran’s missile arsenal and navy, which threaten the US and its allies in the region, as well as freedom of navigation in the Gulf; and preventing Iran’s proxies from destabilizing the Middle East.
For Israel, an operational priority is striking Iranian missile arrays that threaten its territory and, as much as possible, preempting launches against its home front.
Striking launchers on Iranian soil is part of a “multi-dimensional defense” approach that is essential to home-front protection. Additional layers include public warning systems, active air defense, and passive protection.
To operate effectively in hunting launchers and executing other missions, the IAF first focused on establishing a secure aerial corridor free of threats and achieving air superiority over Iranian airspace.
At least in the early stages, Israel’s interest was to concentrate its effort on Iran as much as possible rather than dispersing forces across other theaters. However, the entry of Hezbollah (and possibly the Houthis) creates an opportunity to further degrade Iranian-backed terrorist organizations.
Five factors will dictate shape the duration of the war:
- The extent of damage to, and erosion of, Iran’s ability to continue launching missiles and UAVs: This is not a war fought along a shared border with ground forces, nor is it an Iran-Iraq-style war that drags on for eight years. It is a war premised on firepower – missiles, bombs, and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). And while Iran’s launch capabilities are likely to be steadily worn down, Israel and the United States are likely to intensify their strikes against Iranian targets.
The Iranians understand this, which is why they have been launching missiles and drones at other countries in the region. So far, Iran has struck American and domestic targets in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates. At this stage, there are no indications that the Gulf states intend to retaliate for Iranian attacks on their territory. Saudi Arabia, however, has said it reserves the right to respond to attacks against it. In addition, Iran’s missile launches have led to renewed coordination between the leaders of Saudi Arabia and the UAE after a long period of estrangement.
- The extent to which Iran and its proxies succeed in disrupting critical shipping routes and driving up energy prices: The naval arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has warned vessels against transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The primary mission of the US Navy will be to keep the straits open.
- Involvement of Iran’s proxies in the campaign: Hezbollah has already joined the war, initially launching a limited number of missiles and UAVs at Israel and triggering extensive Israeli strikes. This emerging front – as well as the potential involvement of the Houthis – broadens the confrontation and could prolong it. Still, it is important to “keep our eyes on the ball” and preserve the Iranian front as the main theater. International efforts to halt the fighting and return the parties to the negotiating table: China and Russia have strongly condemned the attack on Iran and are calling for an immediate cessation of military operations. Key European states are urging restraint and working to convene the United Nations Security Council, while increasingly criticizing Iranian aggression. It would not be surprising if Turkey, Qatar, or Oman attempt to broker a ceasefire.
- Domestic political pressure in the United States: Trump is torn between allowing the time required for strategic gains to accumulate and his preference for a short campaign, amid political pressure inside the US to bring the war to an end. It is still unclear whether he will opt for a longer campaign aimed at weakening the regime as much as possible, or instead seek to inflict maximum damage on Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities as a basis for returning to negotiations. His calculus will likely be shaped by internal American pressure stemming from casualties and energy prices, as well as external pressure that may come from Gulf states.
Will the Iranian regime fall?
Toppling a regime by airstrikes is extremely difficult, particularly given that the Islamic Republic has demonstrated that it can mobilize significant resources and loyal forces determined to fight with considerable brutality to ensure its survival and maintain its grip on the country.
Still, a successful campaign that strikes at Iran’s political, religious, and military leadership and strips it of key military capabilities could destabilize the regime to a sufficient degree – either compelling it to accept a favorable agreement or forcing it to focus on its own survival at the expense of its destabilizing activities in the region.
An assessment of all factors suggests that the war is unlikely to end overnight and may well continue for quite a few weeks.
Israelis should take a deep breath and follow Home Front Command instructions. This is a just war, launched in the wake of the massacre of tens of thousands of protesters in Iran – a massacre met with relative silence in the West – and against the backdrop of Iran’s refusal to curb its nuclear and missile programs.
Preventing these threats justifies the costs, with the IDF and the US military working to keep those costs to an absolute minimum.
The writer is a major-general (res.), a former head of Israeli Military Intelligence and the president and founder of MIND ISRAEL.