The toppling of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has brought Venezuela's debt crisis, one of the world's largest unresolved sovereign defaults, to the forefront.
Following years of economic crisis and US sanctions that severed the country from international capital markets, Venezuela defaulted in late 2017 after missing payments on international bonds issued by the government and the state oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA).
Since then, accumulated interest and legal claims arising from past expropriations have added to the unpaid principal, thereby swelling total external liabilities far beyond the face value of the original bonds.
Venezuela's distressed debt has rallied since US President Donald Trump assumed office in January 2025, as speculators bet on the possibility of political change.
Below is an overview of which entities owe money, what could be included in a restructuring, and who might be knocking on Caracas' door to collect.
How much does Venezuela owe?
Analysts estimate that Venezuela has approximately $60 billion in outstanding defaulted bonds. However, total external debt, including PDVSA obligations, bilateral loans, and arbitration awards, is estimated at approximately $150-$170 billion, depending on how accrued interest and court judgments are accounted for, according to analysts.
The International Monetary Fund estimates Venezuela's nominal GDP at about $82.8 billion for 2025, implying a debt-to-GDP ratio of between 180%-200%.
A PDVSA bond originally maturing in 2020 was secured by a majority stake in the US-based refiner Citgo, which PDVSA, a Caracas-based company, ultimately owns. Citgo is an asset now at the center of court-supervised efforts by creditors to recover value.
Who holds what?
Years of sanctions, including a prohibition on trading in Venezuela’s debt, have made it difficult to monitor ownership.
The largest share of commercial creditors likely comprises international bondholders, including specialist distressed-debt investors, sometimes referred to as vulture funds.
Among the creditors is a group of companies that received compensation through international arbitration after their assets were expropriated by Caracas. US courts have upheld multi-billion-dollar awards to ConocoPhillips and Crystallex, among others, turning those claims into debt obligations and allowing creditors to pursue Venezuelan assets to make themselves whole.
A growing pool of court-recognized claimants is competing for recovery from Citgo’s parent company through US legal proceedings. A Delaware court registered approximately $19 billion in claims arising from the auction of PDV Holding, Citgo's parent, which far exceeds the estimated value of Citgo's total assets. PDV Holding is PDVSA’s wholly-owned subsidiary.
Caracas also has bilateral creditors, primarily China and Russia, which extended loans to both Maduro and his mentor, former president Hugo Chavez.
Precise figures are difficult to verify because Venezuela has not published comprehensive debt statistics for years.
A distant restructuring?
Given the plethora of claims, legal proceedings, and political uncertainty, a formal restructuring is expected to be complex and lengthy.
A sovereign debt workout could be anchored by an IMF program setting fiscal targets and debt-sustainability assumptions. However, Venezuela has not held an IMF annual consultation in nearly two decades and remains excluded from the lender’s financing.
US sanctions are another obstacle. Since 2017, restrictions imposed under both Republican and Democratic administrations have sharply limited Venezuela's ability to issue or restructure debt without explicit licenses from the US Treasury.
It is unclear what will happen with US sanctions. For now, Trump has said the US will "run" the oil-producing nation.
What are recovery values?
Bonds have returned some 95% at the index level in 2025.
Many of them currently trade between 27 and 32 cents on the dollar, according to MarketAxess data.
In November, Citigroup analysts estimated that a principal haircut of at least 50% would be required to restore debt sustainability and satisfy potential IMF conditions.
Under Citi’s base case, Venezuela could offer creditors a 20-year bond with a coupon of around 4.4%, alongside a 10-year zero-coupon note to compensate for past-due interest. Using an exit yield of 11%, Citi estimates the net present value of the package in the mid-40s cents on the dollar, with recoveries potentially rising into the high-40s if Venezuela were to issue additional contingent instruments, such as oil-linked warrants.
Other investors sketch a wider range. Aberdeen Investments said in September it had initially assumed recoveries of around 25 cents on the dollar for Venezuelan bonds. Still, that improved political and sanctions scenarios could lift recoveries into the low-to-mid-30s, depending on the structure of any deal and the use of oil-linked or GDP-style instruments.
What is Venezuela's economic situation?
Recovery assumptions sit against a grim backdrop.
Venezuela’s economy shrank dramatically after 2013, when oil production fell sharply, inflation accelerated, and poverty increased. Although output has stabilized somewhat, lower global oil prices and discounts to Venezuela's crude prices limit revenue gains, leaving little room to service debt without deep restructuring. The recent US blockade of sanctioned oil tankers has exacerbated the situation.
Trump said American oil companies were prepared to tackle the difficult task of entering Venezuela and investing to restore production, but details and timelines remain unclear. Chevron is the only American major currently operating in Venezuela's oil fields.