Defense-minded Israelis were watching US President Donald Trump's State of the Union speech avidly for mentions of the word "Iran," but also more specifically, for the words "ballistic missiles."
They were disappointed and in a big way.
True, Trump did utter the words missiles a few times and raised the spectre of Iran someday being able to target the US, with it already able to target US Middle East bases and parts of Europe.
This was better than nothing at all.
But even that mention was in the context of discussing the nuclear threat, to which the majority of the speech was dedicated.
It was clearer than ever that if the Islamic Republic truly makes an offer to Trump which will effectively end its nuclear program, or comes pretty close to that goal, he will cut a deal, even if the ballistic missile issue is not fully dealt with.
Maybe he will seek some minor concessions on ballistic missiles, an informal understanding of undeclared limits, or a side note clarifying that if Tehran does cross certain thresholds, he will not hold Israel back from attacking.
But based on how little attention he gave to the issue, that would be the best case scenario.
The scenario Israel had hoped for, that Trump would use this unique moment to eliminate the ballistic missile program, or at least formally and officially cap the program at its current numbers, is out as a prerequisite for a deal.
Israel sees US attack as key to halting Iran’s missile program
It seems now that the only way Jerusalem will get Iran's ballistic missile threat reduced will be through an American attack on Iran, and not through any deal.
For a deal, Trump's only desire is to hear "those secret words: we will never have a nuclear weapon."
It was very clear that the nuclear issues was his focus, with him explaining his case for a potential war with Iran as being mostly based on the idea that the ayatollahs are trying to rebuild the program after Israel and the Us bombed it in June 2025.
And Israelis are happy that he seems committed to putting down the nuclear threat.
He also tossed in some quotes about Iran killing Americans, killing its own people, and being generally very bad.
But if Israelis would have wanted to see an equal focus on the ballistic missile threat, to the nuclear threat, it was clear that the ballistic missile threat was an afterthought.
He certainly did not make it part of his case for war.
There still may be no deal.
The Islamic Republic may misread Trump poorly enough to think they can get away with keeping more of their nuclear program than he is willing to swallow, which may very well still lead Trump to attack, and if he attacks, the US will very likely take a large bite out of the ballistic missile program, if not destroy most of it.
But short of a US military strike, if there is a deal, it seems Israel will still need to live in the future with the threat of an arsenal of Iranian ballistic missiles flying in from over the horizon.