It’s not clear how quickly this will happen, but the Taliban’s ability to gain international clout, such as through Qatar and other countries, illustrates how far they have come. A recent visit to Moscow by Taliban officials, and assurances they made to China, illustrate where they think they are heading.
The Taliban were quoted in The Wall Street Journal as seeking to “reassure Beijing, despite past support for Uyghur militants.” This explanation has now been picked up by others, and it sounds a lot like how Pakistan’s leader, Imran Khan, has responded when asked about China’s policies.
Essentially, people such as Khan talk tough on the world stage about “Islamophobia.” But mostly, they use this issue when looking at Western countries and when dealing with other governments that Pakistan wants to work with, such as China or Russia. But there is no meddling in internal affairs, and the Taliban now appear to accept this.
The point the Taliban are making is that this isn’t the Taliban of old that emerged in the 1990s to take over Afghanistan, spread terrorism, host terrorism, commit cultural genocide and enabled Afghanistan to be a dumping ground of jihadists from all over the world.
This Taliban, just as its likely supporters and friends in Pakistan, Qatar, Malaysia and Turkey, will be more “responsible” in the sense that it will seek to run Afghanistan as an extremist Islamist state, but it will not spread terrorism everywhere.
Essentially, this devil’s bargain is one that Western states are often willing to accept. As long as terrorism isn’t threatening the West, the Taliban can be tolerated.
The Taliban have told Moscow they already control much of Afghanistan, including border crossings. Their message to Moscow is that they don’t threaten other Central Asian states.
“The Russian Foreign Ministry said the Kremlin envoy to Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, met with the Taliban delegation to express concern about the escalation and tension in northern Afghanistan,” the Associated Press reported. The ministry said Kabulov had urged the Taliban “to prevent them from spreading beyond the country’s borders.”
Why does this matter? The Taliban showcase how militant and extremist groups can take over countries and become recognized and treated like normal states. This could bode well for the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon and even Turkish-backed extremists in Idlib, Syria.
It is known that under the last US administration there were some US officials who wanted to treat Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which used to be al-Qaeda in Syria, as a group that could receive US outreach or support via Ankara. What that means is that some US officials thought the US could work with the successors to al-Qaeda.
Unsurprisingly, US partners, such as those in Ankara, Doha or Pakistan, may think the same of the Taliban. In short, after two decades, the groups responsible for the September 11 terrorist attacks have become almost mainstream. The Taliban may soon be holding court for many of the world’s countries, and groups such as HTS could be meeting with Ankara, a member of NATO.
Iran’s backing of Hezbollah and the Houthis and the joint Iran-Turkey backing of Hamas may not seem so strange in a world where groups such as the Taliban, which are similar to Hamas, are globe-trotting.
Hamas has also made inroads with Qatar, Turkey and Malaysia, among other states. This does not bode well for countries that prefer moderation and coexistence.
The question is whether the Taliban narrative of not bothering its neighbors is really true. Pakistan, Russia and others may be gambling that it is.