On October 12, the Prime Minister’s Office announced the appointment of Brig.-Gen. (res.) Erez Askal as the first-ever head of a new National Artificial Intelligence (AI) Directorate within the PMO.
This was a significant structural shift, with the Israel National Cyber Directorate (INCD) and the Israel Innovation Authority each working separately on aspects of the AI revolution within their respective primary focuses.
On its face, the move was simply a reflection of the fact that AI, which Israel has considered necessary for about a decade now, has become even more critical, requiring greater focus and more independent resources.
However, this shift could lead to conflict, both direct and indirect, especially between the new AI authority and the INCD, which will be giving up on this portfolio within its broader mission.
There are disagreements among former top cyber officials about how likely this division of responsibilities is to run smoothly or, instead, cause conflict.
In terms of direct conflict, the INCD is the lead player in defending the civilian and much of the government sectors from cyberattacks, as well as managing the fallout from such attacks when they occur. A recent example would be Iran’s Yom Kippur cyberattacks on Israeli hospitals.
If future cyberattacks are expected to involve a certain measure of AI capabilities – an increasing trend – might the new AI authority, at some point, try to assert itself in aspects of cyber defense, including in real-time crises?
Who, for one, will be in charge of the defense and recovery after a cyberattack on Israeli hospitals in the future?
AI authority will start small
This internal conflict is unlikely to occur in the near future, as the new AI authority will start slowly, lacking sufficient staff to handle operational capabilities initially and focusing more on strategy and long-term planning.
But the INCD also started as a tiny authority within the PMO and, over time and through several iterations, grew into a powerhouse of hundreds of highly trained employees. Eventually, this could also happen with the AI authority, leading to a fundamental clash.
Such conflict between rival Israeli governmental authorities is far beyond theoretical, given that in the past the INCD fought for years with the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) over who would handle various cyber defense issues until the sides reached a consensus.
And all of that is only regarding direct potential conflict.
The likelihood of indirect conflict is higher and possibly unavoidable.
Like some former top cyber officials have told The Jerusalem Post, there is always competition in government, and more specifically, in the technological fields of government, for attention from top politicians to accomplish large campaigns, secure larger budgets, attract the highest-quality personnel, and secure the general public’s attention and cooperation.
As the AI authority expands, especially in a post-war period when the government will likely spend years trying to reduce budgets across many authorities, won’t the INCD take a budget hit?
Won’t the AI authority steal some of the new up-and-coming top talent from the IDF and the Shin Bet, who, before, were most likely to go to the INCD if they stayed in the public service sector?
And how easy will it be for the INCD to start new campaigns, or even complete old ones, like passing a national cyber law, when both the government’s and the public’s attention might shift to the newest, most high-end tech jewel, and away from the INCD, which is already approximately a decade old?
Other former leading cyber sources were more optimistic about the situation with the Post, saying that the new AI authority would help Israel exploit the best of both worlds, focusing on the most critical aspects of cyber defense and AI on separate fronts.
They pointed out that the INCD is really about cyber defense as a practical matter and that the AI authority will not be involved in practical implementation, but rather in setting the country’s vision and goals for AI, looking into the future.
However, when the PMO unveiled the AI authority, it stated that “the national directorate will lead the formulation and implementation of the national strategy in the field, serving as a central arm for promoting innovation, regulation, infrastructure, and research, while strengthening Israel’s status in the international arena.”
“The directorate will concoct the national plan for accelerating AI, while providing professional guidance and consultation to government ministries and auxiliary units on regulatory matters,” said the PMO.
This list of items goes beyond general strategy to dealing with questions in the field, regulations and legislation, building infrastructure, and conducting international negotiations.
All of the above agenda items are also similar to those included in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s 2014 announcement regarding the original cyber directorate within the PMO.
This could truly set up the new AI authority to battle with the INCD, just as the INCD fought a multi-year battle with the Shin Bet in the past.
Part of the resolution of that dispute occurred under Buky Carmeli’s stewardship. He ran the INCD between 2016 and 2018. The other part happened when a top Shin Bet cyber official, Yigal Unna, served as the organization’s head from 2018 to 2022. It seems that having one of their own running the INCD settled the Shin Bet’s objections somewhat.
Eventually, the agency itself handled specific national security cyber defense priorities, and the INCD dealt with the country’s wider cyber defense, especially in the civilian sector.
While this division paved the way for the INCD to grow exponentially, it has failed, for over a decade, to pass legislation that would permanently enshrine its authorities, which could leave it more liable to being pushed around later on.
By the time Gaby Portnoy began managing the INCD in 2022 and Yossi Karadi replaced him in March of this year, though they both came from IDF intelligence backgrounds and not the Shin Bet, the relations between the two organizations were already ironed out.
Upon announcing Askal’s appointment, the PMO added that he “brings with him rich experience from the defense establishment, including as the head of the IDF’s C4i Digital Transformation Directorate and the Cyber Defense Directorate, the commander of the 9900 Visual Intelligence Unit, and in intelligence roles in the air force and the research division of the Military Intelligence Directorate.”
Clearly, Askal and Karadi, who also came from IDF intelligence, have worked together, so how the INCD and the new AI authority establish working ties will also likely be heavily influenced by these men’s interpersonal relationships.
A spokesperson for the INCD told the Post at the time of the announcement that the two directorates would partner very closely “to ensure that Israel remains a cyber powerhouse.”
Whether there will be greater cooperation or conflict will play out over the coming months and years.