The latest assessments from both Israel and the United States suggest that Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is alive but does not currently hold real control over Iran’s leadership apparatus, two sources told The Jerusalem Post.
According to one source familiar with the details, the balance of power appears to favor the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, rather than Khamenei himself.
“The more likely scenario is that the Revolutionary Guards are controlling him, not the other way around,” one well-informed source stated, adding that “in a few days, we will probably know more.”
Officials in Israel and the US further emphasized that current intelligence indicates Khamenei is wounded but alive, suggesting he remains physically capable of carrying out at least some functions. However, even if he is formally involved in decision-making, his authority – if it exists – is limited and far from absolute.
It is certainly not comparable to the level of centralized power long exercised by his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Khamenei alive, but IRGC likely leading Iran
On Friday, during Nowruz – the Iranian New Year and one of the country’s most significant national holidays – there were expectations that Mojtaba would address the public directly through a video or audio message.
Such appearances are often used to project authority and stability. However, instead of a live or recorded address, only a written statement was released, accompanied by several still images.
The timing of these images remains unclear, further fueling speculation about his actual condition and level of control.