The Eurovision odds tables are predicting that Israel’s 2026 contestant, Noam Bettan, will win the televoting with his song, Michelle, at the Eurovision Song Contest in Vienna in May – by a wide margin.
The Eurovision World website presented the oddsmakers who predict the televoting results separately from the overall results, and according to them, Israel has a 26% chance of topping the televoting. Greece is predicted to come in second with 15% , and Finland is in third place with 14% odds.
The Polymarket betting website also predicts that Israel will come in first in the televoting this year. Polymarket’s numbers are similar to those quoted in the betting table in Eurovision World. Polymarket has Israel first with a 36% chance of winning, Greece second with an 18% chance, and Finland third with 11%.
If Bettan were to win the televoting, it would be the second year in a row that Israel has accomplished this feat, since Yuval Raphael won the audience voting in 2025 and finished second overall with her song, New Day Will Rise. The previous year, Eden Golan finished second in the televoting with Hurricane and fifth overall, while in 2023, Noa Kirel came in fifth in the televoting and finished third overall with Unicorn.
The winner of Eurovision is decided in two ways: by the votes of national juries, groups of music industry professionals handpicked by each country, and the televoting, in which audiences around the world can call in and vote. Audiences may not vote for their own country. “Rest of the World” voting was introduced in 2023, so people outside the Eurovision countries can now vote. Following the attack on Israel by Hamas on October 7, 2023 and the war that broke out, the national juries have been far more negative toward Israel than the audiences. Eurovision is the world’s largest live-music event, with more than 160 million watching around the world.
In 2025, several countries asked the Eurovision general assembly vote at its December 2025 meeting at the headquarters of the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) to ban Israel from the contest, because of the war in Gaza. In addition, many artists and politicians accused Israel of cheating because it won the televoting and specifically said that government websites had promoted New Day Will Rise, which some contended was a violation of the rules. But the EBU investigated the allegations following Eurovision 2025 and concluded that there was no wrongdoing.
Jordi Pedra, a reporter for Wiwibloggs, a Eurovision website, wrote that Spotlight, Eurovision’s investigation branch, found that, “Other countries also ran advertising campaigns, including Malta, Greece, Albania, Poland, Armenia, and France. Some of these were run by the artists themselves via their own social platforms, and some were promoted via the competing broadcaster in the territory.”
New Eurovision rules will not affect televoting
New rules adopted in late 2025 allow each televoter to cast only 10 votes, not 20. But another, far more significant change was implemented: National juries will now be able to vote in the semifinals and help determine which countries go to the finals. This will likely make it harder for Israel to win overall but will not affect the televoting.
In its December 2025 meeting, the Eurovision governing body declined to vote on Israel’s participation, meaning that Israel would stay in, but it did emphasize that it was adopting the rule changes.
Despite these changes and the fact that the EBU found no wrongdoing on Israel’s part in the first place, several countries chose to withdraw. Spain, Slovenia, Iceland, Ireland, and the Netherlands said they would not take part this year if Israel does.
Throughout all this behind-the-scenes turmoil, Israel selected a male singer for the first time in years, Noam Bettan, who won The Next Star for Eurovision talent contest. He was born to a family of French immigrants and he sings much of the song, Michelle, in French. While the songs New Day Will Rise and Hurricane illuminated the tragedy of the Hamas massacre, Michelle is a more upbeat song, about a love story that didn’t work out, and Bettan brings sweetness and energy to his performance. Those formulating the odds have certainly seen the video of his performance and were impressed enough to think that the voters would be.
Israel has won the song contest four times since it began participating in 1973: in 1978, 1979, 1998, and 2018.