Poll predicts Likud will win some 30 seats, Kadima 21-22, Israel Beiteinu 17-18 and Labor 16.
By GIL STERN STERN HOFFMAN
An in-depth survey conducted by Israel Beiteinu's American political strategist, Arthur Finkelstein, found that Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni's Kadima Party could finish in fourth place in the February 10 election.
According to a source in Israel Beiteinu, the poll predicted that the Likud would win some 30 seats, Kadima 21-22, Israel Beiteinu 17-18 and Labor 16. But Israel Beiteinu's voters were the most intense in their support and therefore most likely to vote, while Kadima's were the least likely to do so.
"There is a theoretical outcome where Kadima falls to fourth place, but the chances of it happening are very slim," Israel Beiteinu strategist George Birnbaum said. "People vote because of anger and emotion. Kadima doesn't have anything emotional driving its voters or any ideology to rally behind."
Israel Beiteinu officials stressed that it was unlikely that Kadima would become the fourth largest party, but they said that according to their numbers, the chance of it winning the election was zero.
According to the data, the Likud's numbers had been steady, Labor's had gone up and down, Kadima's had constantly slipped, and Israel Beiteinu's had steadily grown. The police investigation against Lieberman and his associates that intensified last week boosted his support.
"The majority of the public saw the investigation as purely political," an Israel Beiteinu source said. "It just makes people angrier and increased the intensity of our vote. It certainly didn't hurt us."
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