Populism puts Abraham Accords at risk: Not just in Israel, but globally - opinion

Unlike Israel’s many military victories of recent years, the Accords, signed on the White House lawn on September 15, 2020, represent a triumph of diplomacy, not war.

It reflected the only peace treaty achieved in our time through dialogue rather than armed conflict.

Israelis who once could only dream of visiting the Gulf found themselves meandering along the streets of Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Manama, and Casablanca – sometimes greeted warmly, other times treated like any other tourist.

Beyond the booming trade figures, one of the most symbolic outcomes was the proliferation of kosher restaurants in these cities – visible markers of Jewish life returning to places from which it had long been absent.

Five years later, the Accords are at their most fragile point. Surprisingly, this fragility is not primarily due to the devastating war in Gaza – which began with the most horrific attack on Jews since the Holocaust – or the tens of thousands of Palestinians killed in the conflict.

Nor is it due to the largest military operations in the West Bank since the Second Intifada.

Instead, the biggest threat comes from rising populism, in Israel and across democratic societies worldwide.

Israel’s military achievements in this period are undeniable. From South Lebanon to Rafah and Khan Yunis, Jenin to Damascus, and even Tehran and Sanaa, the IDF’s intelligence and operational capacity have stunned enemies.

Israel’s Gen Z has proven, like previous generations, its resilience under unimaginable pressure. These enemies – Hezbollah, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, the Houthis – are the very same forces that also threaten our peace partners in the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and potential future partners like Saudi Arabia.

In a rational, non-populist environment, this shared threat should have brought Israel and its regional partners closer than ever. Instead, relations are deteriorating.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may have believed he could contain this, but the strategic cost could ultimately unravel one of his greatest diplomatic achievements – the Abraham Accords.

The same populist logic is visible abroad. In Europe and the US, left-wing populists mirror these extremes, competing for outrage. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez went so far as to say he wished he had an atomic bomb to stop Israel’s war in Gaza – a grotesque statement that only fuels polarization.

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has eagerly exploited this narrative in recent months, especially since the October 7 attacks. He has accused Israel of pursuing a “Promised Land” ideology, even suggesting that it aspires to control parts of Turkey. The irony, of course, is that Erdogan himself has championed a neo-Ottoman vision, already exercising de facto control over parts of Syria and describing others as Turkish provinces.

When Netanyahu remarked in an August 12 interview that he felt a connection to the vision of the “Promised Land” or “Greater Israel,” Erdogan and others quickly seized on it. The comment went viral, inflaming tensions with Arab leaders to the point that Netanyahu was pressed to clarify weeks later that Israel has no territorial claims against any neighbor.

The danger of populism is not confined to Israel. On July 23, the Knesset overwhelmingly passed a resolution in favor of extending Israeli sovereignty to Judea, Samaria, and the Jordan Valley. The following day, French President Emmanuel Macron floated the idea of recognizing a Palestinian state.

That announcement, according to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, prompted Hamas to walk away from negotiations – a claim France denied but which illustrates how populist positioning in one capital can derail fragile diplomacy elsewhere.

Israel’s counter-reaction, what analyst Amit Segal described as “fighting fire with fuel,” only escalated matters. Last month, Smotrich published a map envisioning annexation of 82 percent of the West Bank – an unprecedented provocation that played directly into the hands of those who want to isolate Israel internationally.

This reckless race to the bottom jeopardizes our relations with the UAE – the first Arab country to normalize ties with Israel in August 2020, paving the way for Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan, as well as Kosovo. One of the key conditions for that normalization was Israel’s freeze on West Bank annexation. If annexation returns to the agenda now, the UAE may find it impossible to justify continued ties to its own public.

Erosion of Israel’s legitimacy is already evident, in Arab societies and across the West. Diplomatic scandals, misconduct allegations, and prolonged war have intensified the strain. Another reckless move – such as formal annexation – could push our regional partners to the breaking point.

The Abraham Accords are not merely another peace treaty; they are the region’s most promising foundation for stability and cooperation in decades. But they cannot withstand the corrosive effects of populist politics – whether from Israel’s own leaders or from foreign capitals. If this dynamic continues unchecked, Israel risks squandering its greatest diplomatic achievement in a generation.

The choice before us is stark: continue down the populist path of outrage and escalation, or recommit to the hard, unglamorous work of diplomacy. The future of the Abraham Accords – and the stability of the region – depends on it.■