There are increasing signs from both Israeli and foreign officials that there will be no major progress toward US President Donald Trump’s Gaza ceasefire Phase II before late February at the earliest.
Recently, top IDF sources predicted it would take months, even in a best-case scenario, before the Palestinian technocratic committee announced by the Trump administration as a key part of Phase II in January would actually start to have a concrete impact on Gazans’ lives.
Then on Friday, Board of Peace Executive Committee leader Nickolay Mladenov said in Munich that there was no basis for his oversight committee or the Palestinian technocratic committee to take any actions in Gaza until the nearly daily disruptions of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas stop.
Mladenov added that if they tried to start improving the situation in Gaza while fighting was still occurring, it would only embarrass them and render their efforts ineffective.
Hamas insists on associates holding power
Since January, there have been no announcements or reports of the committees taking over, even any civilian functions in Gaza, which Hamas has at least sometimes said publicly it is willing to pass on to them.
Rather, the only reports have been about disputes between the committee and Hamas about who will manage rebuilding efforts in Gaza on behalf of the committee, with Hamas insisting on their associates holding such power, even if the Hamas high command moves into the background on political issues.
In addition, Mladenov said the various civilian committees need the International Stabilization Force (ISF) and a new Palestinian police force – one not associated with Hamas – in place.
The earliest that the first piece of the ISF, some 5,000 Indonesian peacekeepers, is expected to arrive in Gaza is still weeks away.
Other than Mladenov, no Israeli or American officials have even been actively discussing the Palestinian police force, such that it is very unclear when and if it will deploy.
Mladenov also said that significantly more funding must come forward for rebuilding Gaza, something that it seems will only start as of the meeting in the US on Thursday.
Collectively, Mladenov’s statements seemed to confirm what IDF sources previously told The Jerusalem Post and others regarding the expected slow pace of any major impacts from Phase II in Gaza.
To date, the only concrete progress on the ground from Phase II has been the opening of the Rafah crossing.
However, even that opening has been much more limited than expected in terms of how many Palestinians are allowed in and out of Gaza, and no vehicles have been allowed through the crossing to date.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made it no secret that he prefers to return to a major operation in Gaza instead of empowering the Palestinian technocratic committee, a Palestinian police force, and ultimately the PA.
Yet, US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff heavily prefer to proceed with Phase II and to avoid a return to major hostilities.