The Gilboa Prison break by six high-security Palestinian prisoners had the entire country on alert for over a week. But with four of the six captured, Israel is breathing a sigh of relief.
Not only were four of the prisoners – including high-profile Zakaria Zubeidi – caught alive, it seemed as though the prison break was not as thought out as the defense establishment initially thought.
While a commission will investigate how the escape was possible at one of the country’s high-security prisons, some points have already become clear, including that the fugitives did not have any outside help.
In contrast to initial reports that they had a getaway car waiting for them when they escaped, it seems they ran away on foot. Despite concerns that they could have made their way into Jordan or deep inside the West Bank, they were found less than 30 kilometers from the jail.
Zubeidi and Mahmoud al-Arida were found in a parking lot in the village of Umm el-Ghanam early on Saturday, hours after Yaqoub Qadiri and Mohammed al-Arida were located in Nazareth on Friday night.
And don’t believe the FaceApp pictures floating around Palestinian media accounts; none of them were smiling when they were caught. They were all disheveled, hungry, exhausted and scared.
Their initiative and boldness that led them to discover the flaw in the prison’s structure did not continue after they exited the tunnel shaft.
All the men, including the two remaining fugitives, have Israeli blood on their hands and were serving life sentences.
Zubeidi, who has been in and out of Israeli and Palestinian prisons since he was 14, was once considered a symbol of the Second Intifada as the leader of Fatah’s al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades in Jenin’s refugee camp.
The other five escapees were identified as Munadil Nafayat, Iham Kahamji, Qadiri and the Arida brothers, who are all members of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and from towns near Jenin.
With only four out of the six back behind bars, Israel’s security forces cannot declare victory yet. At least one of two remaining fugitives is believed to have made it to Jenin, a place where even the Palestinian Authority Security Forces rarely operate in due to the high level of violence.
With the PASF working with Israel to capture the men, it will likely be a joint and violent operation inside the densely populated refugee camp, where there is strong support for PIJ.
Israeli security officials are still concerned that the two men could carry out an attack while they are on the loose or that other Palestinians emboldened by their release could carry out attacks in an attempt to distract troops from the manhunt.
And should the fugitives be killed by security forces, a new wave of terrorist attacks could break out in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.
The refugee camps in the West Bank, especially Jenin, are full of young unemployed men and are awash in weaponry. The mix of high unemployment rates and weapons is never a recipe for calm.
Israel could reenter the West Bank the way it did in Operation Defensive Shield to clear the camps of the tons of arms. But that would almost certainly lead to many casualties on both sides.
There have already been three rockets launched from the Hamas-run coastal enclave, and if Operation Guardian of the Walls taught Israel’s defense establishment anything, it’s that Hamas succeeded in connecting the West Bank and Gaza.
Any bloodshed will lead to violence on both fronts.
Israel breathed a sigh of relief this weekend, and rightly so. But it needs to inhale and hold another breath for just a little longer, and once the last two are caught, it can release that breath – until the next security incident occurs.