The moment after US President Donald Trump on Monday said that there was a possibility of ending the Iran war by the end of this week, Israeli and American sources made sure to thump their chests about how robustly the war would continue absent a ceasefire.
Their message: the war is not slowing down, and other than a few limited energy sector targets, nothing is off limits.
Except that the war has been dramatically slowing down since mid-March, long before this announcement, and for good reason.
In the early days of the war, both Israel and the US were dropping around 1,000 bombs or striking around 1,000 targets daily.
That was never a pace that either side could keep up, simply from the perspective of wear and tear on the fighter jets as well as the need to give the limited number of fighting pilots time to sleep. So already after a few days of the war, the pace started to slow.
But in mid-March, the pace of attacks dropped radically.
US, Israel strikes fall as Iran war intensity wanes
From March 13 to 19, the number of bombs dropped by Israel increased only from around 10,000 to around 12,000.
Putting these numbers together with days in which the IDF announced 200 or 50 attacks, the rate has dropped from 1,000 per day to 200 or less on some days.
Likewise, from March 18 to 23, the number of targets that the US struck increased only from 7,800 to 9,000.
Adding these numbers together, the US average would be down to 240 targets struck per day, and it is now likely lower than that, as it was probably higher around March 18.
In addition, while the IDF sends out endless updates about the 3,000 targets it has hit (it seems to use an average of four or more bombs per target), the US has been sending fewer updates each week as the conflict has continued.
Next, on March 19, IDF sources said that around 90% of the pre-war designated targets had already been hit.
In other words, even if the planes and pilots were not getting tired and worn out, and even if the numbers published were not clearly indicating that the war has markedly slowed down, it would still need to slow down because Israel and the US are running out of targets.
This is true because Israel and the US will not – and might not be able to – target the entire 400,000 Iranian military and one to two million Basij from the air.
All this should make readers suspicious of statements made by Israeli and American officials that the current ceasefire talks will not slow the war down.
It is certainly possible that Israel and the US will keep up attacks at a clip of 50-200 each per day, which is still quite substantial.
Further, it is possible that the Islamic Republic will keep up 10-20 missile launches against Israel per day.
But a much slower pace of war would only hammer home that there are many reasons why Trump may consider ending it, whether this week or in the near future.
Some of those reasons are more strategic issues, like the global economic nightmare dilemma he faces with Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz.
Yet, part of the reason may simply be that – unless Trump shifts his position to support a large-scale ground invasion of Iran (which he currently lacks the capability for given that the US ground forces arriving in the region later this week are too small to do more than guard a small area like Kharg Island) – Israel and the US will soon run out of an enemy to fight.
Trump could extend the war for some weeks with side battles related to Kharg and possibly to the Straits, but the massive-scale bombing war is almost over, whether declared or not.