Amid reports of possible efforts to end the war with Iran, former National Security Council head Eyal Hulata said Thursday that US President Donald Trump is unlikely to end the war without a clear achievement that prevents Iran from claiming a symbolic victory.
Speaking to 103FM, Hulata said Trump’s conduct can be difficult to interpret, but stressed that a clear strategic calculation is guiding decisions behind the scenes.
“President Trump understands that ending this war without the military achievement, his as well, not just ours, being translated into something that at the very least prevents the Iranians from presenting themselves as having bent the Americans, he won’t be able to end the war,” Hulata said, describing this as a central factor delaying any agreement.
He added that the demand for a tangible American achievement is likely to sustain pressure on Iran and could even lead to additional targeted military steps. At the same time, he sought to temper concerns about broader escalation, emphasizing that this does not point to prolonged occupation scenarios seen in past conflicts. According to Hulata, the US focus is on precise strikes to deny Iran any perception of victory, particularly regarding freedom of navigation in the region.
'There is a tendency to underestimate the United States'
Hulata also addressed the nature of potential military action, noting that the emerging scenario differs significantly from large-scale operations. “A limited ground operation, ‘boots on the ground,’ is not what people remember from Iraq and Afghanistan,” he said. Instead, he emphasized targeting specific targets rather than large troop deployments. “That’s not what’s being planned here. President Trump is consistently talking about Kharg Island, which is Iran’s main oil export terminal.”
On whether Washington was surprised by Iran’s resilience, Hulata dismissed the criticism. “There is a tendency to underestimate the United States, and President Trump in particular, and it is somewhat exaggerated,” he said. While the campaign had been planned for a long time, he noted that Iran’s conduct in negotiations reflects a hardline stance. “They are flexing muscles, they are standing firm, in some ways behaving as if the worst is behind them.” He added that Tehran still retains significant leverage, including the ability to strike and exert pressure by threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz.
In conclusion, Hulata said Iran’s response has not been unexpected from an intelligence standpoint. “I don’t think the Iranians have done anything unpredictable in terms of how they are coping,” he said, noting that the structure of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is designed for prolonged confrontation and regime survival. He cautioned, however, that if the US was indeed surprised, “it would mean they did not think this through deeply enough.”