Despite media reports earlier this week claiming that Iran had successfully bypassed the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime expert told The Jerusalem Post on Thursday that the US naval action has been largely successful at limiting Iran’s oil transfer capabilities.
The seven large container ships detected near the Chabahar Port are not a sign that Iran is considering shifting activity to the east of Hormuz, as had initially been theorized, but were anchored after receiving communication from the US military, Michelle Bockmann, a data analyst from Windward, explained, citing recent information provided by CENTCOM.
Unable to return to Kharg Island, the US naval forces have “kettled” the vessels, trapping them in Iranian territorial waters, she explained.
The rapidly evolving situation has left analysts dependent on open-source information, which has become increasingly difficult to obtain as regime vessels have continued to violate international maritime law by turning off their automatic identification systems signals.
This “dark activity” has long helped the regime transport sanctioned oil through multiple tanker-to-tanker transfers until it reaches China.
“The blockade is not just getting vessels as they go in and out of the Strait of Hormuz; it’s looking at this wider network,” Bockmann explained, adding that ships often further complicate this by spoofing their location from Kharg Island to the Gulf of Oman.
“So, these vessels that are coming in as part of this complex ship-to-ship transfer logistics chain.”
Trump claims US has 'total control' over Strait of Hormuz
US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the US had “total control” over the Strait of Hormuz and that it was “sealed up tight” until Iran made a deal, a sentiment that Bockmann seemed to largely agree with.
Despite cargo tracking group Vortexa’s report claiming that at least 34 tankers with links to Iran have bypassed the US blockade, she insisted it was important to remember that sanctions in Iran meant the blockade was essentially “worldwide.”
“Just because a vessel may have got out of the strait without seemingly being intercepted doesn’t mean that it’s broken the blockade, because when the US had the navy blockade on Venezuela, there were some ships that got out, and they chased them all around the Pacific, and weeks later, they boarded them,” Bockmann noted.
“Who’s to say that some of those vessels that did get out aren’t going to be detained and boarded? And if you look at the case of Tiffany two days ago, that was boarded well beyond the Arabian Sea.”
The Pentagon announced on Tuesday that US forces boarded a sanctioned oil tanker in the Bay of Bengal. The Botswana-flagged vessel was deemed stateless by the US and marked a notable change in the US’s maritime enforcement.
Bockmann also confirmed that Windward’s analysis was on par with CENTCOM’s claim that it had turned around 29 vessels.
The seven very large crude carriers (VLCCs) stranded in Iranian waters are a massive success for the US, she reflected, as they carry a potential capacity of up to approximately 14 million barrels.
“That’s quite significant because you’re taking really important ships out of the mix,” she reflected, adding that Iran could sail them to Kharg or leave them as “floating storage.”