Officials in the Trump administration have once again begun speaking openly in recent days about the possibility that military and economic pressure on Iran could ultimately lead to an internal uprising or even the fall of the regime.
At the same time, US President Donald Trump is discussing with his advisers the possibility of declaring the war over.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the pressure on Tehran could lead to an uprising by the Iranian public or even to divisions within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
“Maybe the people will rise up. There is 100% inflation, queues, the military isn’t getting paid. The central bank governor was in a panic last week,” said Bessent, echoing Trump’s position that the previous agreement collapsed because Iran was still not ready for a deal.
The remarks directly echo messages Trump delivered on Wednesday. After posting a call on Truth Social for Iranians to rise up and fight, the president was asked whether that meant he was prepared to send the CIA to arm Iranians seeking to overthrow the regime.
Trump did not rule out the possibility.
Trump contemplates how to end US-Iran conflict
At the same time, as Trump discusses the prospect of an internal uprising, he is also considering how to bring the current military campaign to an end.
According to a report in The Wall Street Journal, Trump has been holding closed-door discussions with senior advisers about whether to declare that the war in Iran is over. US officials said Trump himself has expressed support for the idea.
According to the report, Trump believes that once the military campaign ends, the heavy economic pressure being applied by the United States could achieve the remaining objectives, foremost among them the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program.
Under the assessment attributed to Trump, the pressure could leave the regime with two choices: abandon its nuclear program or risk internal collapse.
Even so, US forces have continued to strike Iranian targets in recent days. Trump has also threatened that any further response from Tehran would be met with even greater force.
US Vice President JD Vance is also expected to address the issue on Thursday.
After nearly two months without a regular White House press briefing, and following the departure last week of White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, Vance is expected to appear in the briefing room and answer questions from reporters.
Iran is expected to be at the center of those questions, alongside domestic political and economic issues in the United States.
Vance’s appearance is also noteworthy from an Israeli perspective.
The last time he appeared before reporters there, on June 18, he directed unusually sharp public criticism at the Israeli government after Israeli ministers opposed an agreement with Iran. He later pushed back against the claim that Israel could resolve all of its threats through military means.
Later, in an interview with The New York Times, Vance referred to criticism from ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir and said:
“Israel’s problem is not Donald Trump, and anyone in Israel who thinks the president is their biggest problem needs to wake up and understand the reality that the country is in.”
US options on Iran include declaring victory, tightening economic pressure
As Vance returns to face White House reporters, the central question will be not only how the administration intends to continue its campaign against Iran, but also whether Washington is beginning to move from the war phase into the next stage.
That could mean declaring victory, tightening the economic pressure on Tehran and waiting to see whether the pressure brings Iran to an agreement or drives the Iranian public to revolt.
Another question is whether Vance will continue leaning, as some have suggested he has been doing recently, toward Israel, particularly as a potential 2028 presidential bid draws closer.
Bessent said the pressure on Tehran could lead the Iranian public to rise up against the regime or cause the IRGC to turn against itself.
Trump, who called on Iranians to rise up and fight, declined to say whether he would send the CIA to arm them. At the same time, he has been discussing with his advisers the possibility of declaring the war over.