Ex-Mossad official: Iran likely to ignore EU pressure for new ‘Trump deal’

Shine said the chances of rehabilitating the nuclear deal or of a new negotiation toward a modified “Trump deal” were “medium to low.”

By YONAH JEREMY BOB
Iran's President Hassan Rouhani addresses the 74th session of the United Nations General Assembly at U.N. headquarters in New York City, New York, U.S., September 25, 2019 (photo credit: REUTERS/LUCAS JACKSON)
Iran's President Hassan Rouhani addresses the 74th session of the United Nations General Assembly at U.N. headquarters in New York City, New York, U.S., September 25, 2019
(photo credit: REUTERS/LUCAS JACKSON)
Despite threats from the EU-3 to trigger snap back UN sanctions on Iran if it does not return to compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal, the Islamic Republic will likely reject a new “Trump deal” for the time being, a former Mossad official said on Tuesday.
Former top Mossad analyst and current INSS fellow Sima Shine wrote a position paper stating, “even if Iran chooses to take some relative steps to moderate in the coming months, it is unlikely that it will give a positive answer to the European partners to the deal.”
Shine said the chances of rehabilitating the nuclear deal or of a new negotiation toward a modified “Trump deal” were “medium to low.”
Further, the position paper continued that if Tehran and the EU do not reach an understanding to reduce the tension associated with the nuclear standoff that, “the likelihood will grow that the Iranian issue will be referred to the UN Security Council.”
At that point, “Iran’s stubbornness could increase and lead to more extreme steps on its part.”
All of this will occur against the backdrop of the broader dynamics in which Iran is “continuing to erode its compliance with the deal,” while the US “clings to its policy of ‘maximum pressure’,” said the former Mossad senior analyst.
All in a period of two weeks, the US assassinated top Iranian official Qasem Soleimani, Iran announced that it was no longer bound by any of the restrictions of the nuclear deal and the EU-3 threatened to snap back global sanctions against Iran.
Even though the Islamic Republic is not necessarily interested in a sudden escalation, Shine explained that its announcement that it was not bound by the 2015 deal went too far for the EU-3 and may lead to a continued deterioration between the parties.
In particular, she said that Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s statement that the country is enriching even more uranium now than before the 2015 deal is a sign that Tehran is still signalling its readiness to provoke.
She does not think it is likely that Iran will follow through on its threat to leave the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty since this could turn even China and Russia against it.
On the flip side, the position paper said that Iran could conceivably achieve some real concessions from the Trump administration since Trump would love to declare a historic deal leading up to the November US presidential elections.
However, Shine said this scenario was unlikely because Iran’s Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has shown himself to be trying to act in a way that restores his country’s honor and avoids any show of weakness.
Moreover, she said that Khamenei has made it clear that he does not trust Trump personally, and so may be closed to making any deal with the US president.
The former Mossad analyst also predicted that the Islamic Republic will likely continue with a mixed political-military campaign against US forces in Iraq to try to force them to leave and bring Baghdad even close to Tehran’s influence. 
Shine warned that this combustible set of moving pieces could easily lead to a broader military conflict between the US and Iran, even if neither side wants such a battle.