Lessons from Iran’s shoot-down of Ukrainian Airlines 752
What makes Iran’s admission interesting and how the tragedy unfolded is important and reveals some details about Tehran's targeting of US bases on January 8.
By SETH J. FRANTZMANUpdated: APRIL 10, 2020 15:09Iranian President Hassan Rouhani (R) and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif attend a meeting with Muslim leaders and scholars in Hyderabad, India, February 15, 2018(photo credit: DANISH SIDDIQUI/ REUTERS)
Iran went from “It’s a big lie” to “We apologize” in just 24 hours. It now says that it shot down Ukrainian Airlines 752 last week, killing all 176 passengers and crew.The Iranian mistake is not the first time civilian jetliners have been shot down. The US shot down an Iranian passenger plane in 1988 and the Russians shot down a Korean plane in 1983. Pro-Russian rebels also likely shot down a Malaysian plane in 2014.What makes Iran’s admission interesting and how the tragedy unfolded is important and reveals details about Iran’s targeting of US bases that same Wednesday.Iran decided to use ballistic missiles to target US bases in Iraq in the wake of the US killing Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps chief Qasem Soleimani. The ballistic missiles mostly were aimed at Ain al-Assad base, where US President Donald Trump spoke in December 2018. This was symbolic.Iran’s ballistic missiles are dangerous but also malfunction – not all the missiles made it to the base. Iran has used missiles before but this is the first time they’ve been used against US bases.Washington decided not to respond directly, and instead deescalated. This is mostly because no one was killed. The missiles hit warehouses, runways and other infrastructure.Iran expected a response, putting its air defense crews on alert. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the IRGC’s Aerospace Force, said his men had only 10 seconds to decide if they should shoot down the Ukrainian plane. He claimed their systems were jammed and they lacked communications, which means there were either errors in their system or foreign jamming.But in such a situation near an international airport why didn’t the IRGC coordinate with civilian air controllers? Why didn’t they have a list of known civilian departures? Why didn’t the airport direct civilian traffic elsewhere or stop it entirely?The IRGC was operating the air defenses and also fired the ballistic missiles. All this, along with Soleimani being the Guards head, points to the organization controlling most of Iran’s foreign offensive capabilities as well as internal defenses. What does Iran’s army actually do? It’s not clear, but the army and civilians seem to have been out of the loop during this operation.This has harmed Hajizadeh’s reputation. The man allegedly responsible for other Iranian actions in Syria and against the Gulf has not had his reputation tarnished. But by taking responsibility he is showing some decency in the aftermath. The regime may have ordered him to do so and made him and the IRGC a scapegoat.Is this another way to claim the “hard-liners” downed a plane while the “good” regime did not. So far it is unclear, but it does poke holes in Iran’s air defense and show how problematic the IRGC is, despite its boasts.Iran’s air defenders made a severe mistake and this shows they expected to be attacked by the US. Hajizadeh implicated an alleged cruise missile threat as the culprit. But Iran didn’t say where it thought the US would shoot cruise missiles from. Iran was on high alert that morning but hadn’t indicated this to civilians.This shows a major disconnect between the IRGC and its plans and communications for the rest of Iran. It illustrates that foreign airlines should be reticent in times of crisis to continue flying.The IRGC said it carried out cyberattacks against US forces before firing ballistic missiles. It indicated it could have killed more Americans if it wanted to. This is its way to save face in the wake of the downing of the plane.The IRGC wants to showcase capabilities that it was not expected to have. Whether it actually was able to disable US drones and communications is unclear. What is clear is that its own communications systems did not perform well and that 176 people were killed because of it.
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