A widespread message on social media since the beginning of the Israel-Iran War is that it didn’t begin six or eight days ago, but over 600 days ago, counting from October 7, 2023.
That was the day that Hamas launched its unprecedented attack on Israel, killing hundreds of people and sparking the war that has been ongoing in Gaza.
That was also the day that the 53 hostages who are still in Gaza, dead or languishing alive, and their families consider Day One of a tragedy whose end hasn’t seen the light at the end of the tunnel – figuratively and literally.
Those hostages still alive haven’t seen the light of day since then, and their fate is hanging by a thread that is getting more frayed with each passing day.
Making a connection between the ongoing Gaza war with the new war against Iran makes perfect sense for a couple of reasons.
Israel-Hamas War and Israel-Iran War are intertwined
The two events – separated by nearly two years – are interminably entwined.
Hamas’s assault on Israel, and the subsequent onslaughts launched by Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, were sponsored and encouraged by the puppet masters in Tehran.
They financed Hamas’s tunnels and missiles, and continue to bolster the Houthis, who have fired more than 40 missiles at Israel since the beginning of the Gaza war.
However, events have not gone Iran’s way. Most security assessments point to Israel’s decimation of Hezbollah and dominance in Gaza as the tipping point for the Iranian regime to begin speeding up development of its nuclear option.
Those assessments, combined with the Islamic Republic using negotiations with the US to drag things along until they achieved their goals, played a big role in Israel’s decision to launch its preemptive strike on Friday, June 13.
Regardless of how the war plays out, Tehran’s position of strength has been significantly altered by the amazing successes of the IAF.
As military historian John Spencer wrote last week: “Imagine if Operation Overlord in World War II began with the elimination of Field Marshal Wilhelm Keitel, Chief of the German High Command; Heinrich Himmler, head of the SS; Field Marshal Erwin Rommel; and the destruction of all of Germany’s air defenses, before a single Allied soldier landed on the beaches of Normandy. That’s not an exaggerated hypothetical. It’s a near-parallel to what Israel just did to Iran.”
As staggering as Israel’s achievements have been thus far, the war does not seem close to its end. Israelis have gotten used to the new routine of heading to the shelters at a few minutes’ notice and tuning in to discover the damage from those ballistic missiles that passed through our life-saving anti-missile technology.
What can’t become routine, however, is the continued presence of the hostages in Gaza.
“Even in our most terrifying moments in bomb shelters, as we hold our families close, our thoughts turn to those we cannot protect: our sons, daughters, parents, siblings, and spouses who remain trapped in the tunnels of Gaza,” The Hostages and Missing Families Forum correctly said last week.
Clearly, with Israel continuing to attack vital targets in Iran and Iran continuing to conduct its deadly retaliation against Israeli civilians, the issue of Gaza and the hostages has been on the back burner for the Netanyahu government.
In some circles, there was hope that the war against Iran could positively influence Hamas’s willingness to be flexible in negotiations on a prisoner exchange and a ceasefire. But, unless it’s happening behind the scenes, no such movement is taking place.
A week ago, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that he identified a “breakthrough” in the negotiations, saying, “I gave instructions to advance the talks,” but since then, there have been no reports of progress.
Qatar, Egypt, and the US called for Israel on Wednesday to dispatch a delegation to Sharm el-Sheikh to negotiate, but the Post’s Amichai Stein reported that sources familiar with the negotiations said that talks have been on hold since the military campaign against Iran began. “Both parties are waiting to assess the situation,” they said.
The problem is that there is no time to wait and assess the situation. Just as Israel’s remarkable campaign against Iran is proceeding at lightning pace, speed is of the essence to achieve the release of the hostages.
Their plight cannot be deprioritized or overlooked – even if we’re in the bomb shelters, or flying over the skies of Tehran.