Appropriately claiming victory for brokering the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, President Donald Trump is now turning his attention to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, as we know, we won’t expect a cautious diplomat.
Trump’s approach will be that of a high-stakes dealmaker, hungry for a headline-grabbing triumph that could bolster his chances for a Nobel Peace Prize. His track record reveals a pattern: bold, disruptive moves that unsettle both allies and adversaries, forcing them to the negotiation table under pressure.
Trump thrives on pushing boundaries, rattling the status quo, and diving into rapid-fire negotiations, all while peppering his rhetoric with personal attacks and meandering diatribes against those he opposes.
When it comes to Ukraine, Trump isn’t interested in maintaining the current stalemate. He will push hard for a “grand bargain” ceasefire he can claim to have engineered. Both sides will face intense pressure: Ukraine coerced into making painful concessions, Russia tempted with promises of eased sanctions and reconstruction aid in exchange for troop withdrawals. Of course, none of this will happen unless Russian President Vladimir Putin, the friend Trump often praises, agrees to play along.
Negotiating a deal
Expect Trump to walk a tightrope. He’ll quietly approve some advanced US arms for Ukraine, but not nearly enough to meet Kyiv’s demands. Cyber coordination with neighboring countries will increase, and he might even green-light high-profile NATO exercises near Russia’s border. No full-scale war escalation, but enough to keep tensions simmering while Trump touts “peace through strength.”
Meanwhile, he will lean heavily on Europe to shoulder more of the financial and security burden, treating NATO less like an alliance and more like a business deal. His main levers will be energy exports, sanctions, tariffs, and trade policies.
This approach can best be described as “calculated recklessness” – bold, headline-ready moves aimed at quick wins, even if long-term peace remains elusive. This is Trump’s version of deal-making: a spotlight-grabbing peace deal, regardless of its durability.
The objective is clear, a Trump-branded peace narrative that captures global attention. Whether the truce holds or collapses, Trump controls the story, presenting himself as the only leader bold enough to try where others hesitate.
He’s driven by a desire to prove he deserves a Nobel Peace Prize, an accolade awarded in the past for far less tangible achievements. Indeed, if the Israel-Hamas ceasefire endures, that would be an extraordinary accomplishment.
Timeline for a Russia-Ukraine deal
A scheduled meeting in Hungary is unlikely to produce swift breakthroughs. This deadlock will only intensify Trump’s push for a prize-worthy deal. Looking ahead, here’s a likely timeline for serious ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia:
In early November 2025, Trump will unveil his “end the war fast” plan, launching new secret negotiations with Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. By December, he will escalate pressure with threats of additional weapons shipments and public calls for dialogue.
Dramatic peace talks are expected to follow, possibly shifting from Hungary to Geneva if initial efforts stall. Trump, alongside his trusted real estate negotiator Steve Witkoff, will push a ceasefire draft involving partial Russian troop withdrawals tied to a Western-backed reconstruction fund.
Throughout spring and summer, Trump will amplify energy and trade pressures on Russia and Europe, framing himself as the leader restoring American influence on the world stage. By September, he will unveil the peace deal and declare victory, even if the accord is fragile and temporary.
The real challenge lies in the nature of the parties involved. Hamas is unlikely ever to willingly disarm or abandon its violent death cult driven ideology. Similarly, Putin’s ambitions to restore a USSR-era sphere of influence remain deeply entrenched.
While any progress toward peace deserves cautious applause, we must remain vigilant and realistic. Longstanding hatred and authoritarian impulses complicate any hope for lasting reconciliation. The road ahead is fraught with risk, but the pursuit of peace demands that we engage with both eyes open.
Dr. Michael J Salamon is a psychologist specializing in trauma and abuse and director of ADC Psychological Services in Netanya and Hewlett, NY. Louis Libin is an expert in military strategies, wireless innovation, emergency communications, and cybersecurity.