The blood on Bondi Beach had barely dried when authorities began looking into the details of the perpetrators of the attack. Twenty-four-year-old Naveed Akram and his 50-year-old father, Sajid Akram, were filmed carrying out the shooting that left 15 innocent people dead, and after an ISIS flag was found in their vehicle, it seemed their allegiances were clear to see.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese even said as much during a Monday press conference, claiming the two acted alone and expressed allegiance to ISIS. However, Israeli and Australian investigators did not rule out the involvement of a larger player.
During the videos of the attack, the speed and skill that Naveed showed in shooting his victims led many to believe such shooting required specific training, and that contributed to the theory of the “state actor.”
Israeli authorities said that they were investigating whether state actors were involved in the mass shooting, and a senior US official told Fox News that if the Islamic Republic ordered the attack, then the US would fully recognize Israel’s right to strike Iran in response.
So, why the rush to investigate Iran?
Iran's previous attacks on Australian soil
First and foremost, in August, Albanese and law enforcement officials stated that Iran was the mastermind behind at least two major antisemitic arson attacks in Australia and was likely responsible for more incidents among a wave of anti-Jewish episodes in the country since the October 7 massacre.
Albanese further declared that, as a consequence, the Iranian ambassador to Australia would be expelled and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps would be designated as a terrorist organization.
The Australian Security Intelligence Organization at that point had gathered enough intelligence to determine that the Islamic regime had directed the December 6, 2024, Adass Israel Synagogue arson attack in Melbourne and the October 20, 2024, Lewis’ Continental Kitchen arson attack in Sydney. So it is reasonable and indeed smart not to rule Iran out.
Second, Ahmad Ghadiri Abyaneh, the son of former Iranian ambassador to Australia Mohammad-Hassan Ghadiri Abyaneh, posted an antisemitic message on X/ Twitter just hours before an attack on the Jewish gathering in Sydney on Sunday.
He labeled Hanukkah celebrations as satanic rituals and called for “defense.” “Starting from tomorrow... the Jewish Hanukkah celebrations will begin as a platform for holding satanic rituals by Masonic circles, the individual, familial, and social harmful effects of which will become apparent in faith-based communities,” he wrote.
“Spiritual defense during these days, through reciting the Surah [chapters of the Quran] and supplications emphasized by the Leader of the Revolution, has an added necessity.” Similarly, Sepah Media’s X account, linked to the IRGC, also posted a social media message hours before the attack stating, “And if you punish [an enemy, O believers], then punish with an equivalent of that with which you were harmed.”
Third, consider the cynical Iranian response. Foreign Minister Esmaeil Baghaei condemned “terror violence and mass killing” without mentioning Jews, Judaism, or antisemitism. Iranian state media framed the massacre through the lens of the Israel-Hamas War, with one regime-linked journalist questioning whether the gunmen were truly terrorists for targeting “people who
continue to support” Israel. If Mossad and Australian investigators establish Iranian
complicity in the attack, be it through direct operational control, funding, weapons provision, or incitement, Israel’s response must be swift and severe. The fact that the US has already stated its willingness to allow Jerusalem to deal with matters itself, should Iranian accountability be
proven, shows the gravity with which Washington views this attack and the credibility of possible intelligence pointing toward Tehran.
However, it must be ironclad proof, not circumstantial convenience. Israel has to rely on irrefutable evidence so that there is no doubt of Iranian involvement. But Iran should not misread the situation; if that evidence exists, Israel will act strongly and quickly, and likely much more powerfully than June’s brief conflict. It is a reckoning the Islamic Republic, with all its internal dilemmas, could do without.