The elimination of Iran’s leader may prove to be not merely a dramatic event in the Middle East but a turning point in international relations.
The event reveals a convergence of several profound trends: the failure of the international system to address global threats, the erosion of hope that a stable world order can be based on liberal democratic principles, and rising populism. Added to this is the technological maturation of targeted killing capabilities that make the systematic assassination of rogue leaders a practical possibility.
My book, The Leviathan Option (May 2025), a work of speculative fiction, describes how this combination of trends raises the possibility of a joint superpower coalition emerging. This coalition imposes world order through personal deterrence against leaders perceived as “threatening world peace.”
Cooperation among the three major powers becomes possible following a terrible disaster that makes clear to them that the existential interest in saving the planet outweighs all other considerations. Thus, under very tragic circumstances, the Great Power Competition would cease to dominate the international system.
Applying fiction to reality
Recent developments in the Middle East teach us that even fiction, where characters are allowed to “flow” as they please, can yield challenging insights. The book’s protagonists wonder: “Why not focus our efforts to prevent nuclear disaster, and indeed any other significant disaster, on the leaders responsible for its creation? After all, they are the ones who make the decisions and push the button. Why harm their people rather than them?”
In the fictional plot, the characters work to eliminate rogue leaders, foremost among them the ayatollah in Iran. According to their approach, the historical polemic about whether killing a leader also kills the idea guiding his crimes has lost its sting. The fate of his successors will be identical to his if they ignore the threats directed at them. Gradually, anyone aspiring to leadership will know in advance that they are personally exposed to certain elimination. This awareness will create an ultimate incentive not to deviate from the rules dictated to them.
In the reality outside the book’s pages, there is no dispute that the existing international system – with the UN at its head – is failing to address the dangers threatening humanity’s fate: proliferation of non-conventional weapons, climate change, pandemics, ocean pollution, international terrorism, drugs, and more.
Simultaneously, the capability for precise, lethal targeted killing of heads of state is rapidly developing: autonomous drones, artificial intelligence, identification and tracking systems. All of these make the possibility of eliminating leaders a more attractive and effective enforcement tool than ever.
Ali Khamenei’s elimination may prove to be a milestone in a process whereby the killing of heads of state becomes a legitimate policy tool and a practice that pushes aside traditional interpretations of international law. Not a covert move but an open step, whose initiators – emphasizing the moral basis of the elimination – proudly take responsibility for its execution.
Imposing world order
Already in the 17th century, Thomas Hobbes wrote that preventing anarchy requires a “Leviathan” – a sovereign with supreme power capable of imposing order on everyone. In an era of enormous global dangers, the temptation grows to breathe life into this idea and transform the Leviathan from a state ruler to a global ruler.
From the perspective of a “future Leviathan,” Khamenei’s elimination may thus be perceived as the beginning of an era in which state leaders are not immune to the consequences of their actions. The kidnapping of Venezuela’s president two months earlier also marks the development of this trend.
If in the past leaders enjoyed almost absolute immunity, today it is possible – technically and operationally – to impose personal accountability on them. The Leviathan will justify this approach not only as efficient but also morally superior: Decision-makers will bear the price of their “criminal” decisions, not the people subject to their rule.
Do we want a world where the Leviathan can exercise its tremendous power arbitrarily? How can it be ensured that this will be an enlightened ruler and not a corrupt self-interested actor caring for his own people at the expense of the world’s other inhabitants? Who will determine who is a “rogue leader”? After all, under the guise of “saving humanity,” many injustices could be committed.
However disturbing the answers, the chance of blocking this development is slim. If the major powers establish a “Leviathan” following a massive disaster to ensure world order, they will not seek the consent of other nations. From their perspective, “might makes right.”
Israel’s leaders will also be forced to adapt to the new rules of the game. They too will be exposed to the Leviathan’s strike if perceived as endangering its desired world order. Will the targeted killing in which Israel excelled – and is morally justified – return to haunt it as a threatening boomerang?
The writer is a former director-general of the Foreign Ministry. His latest book, The Leviathan Option: A Deep State Story, is available on Amazon.