I am not a great fan of US Vice President JD Vance, but I must admit that I was rather pleased about his reported criticism of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a phone conversation with him last Monday, for overstating the prospects of the US-Israeli aerial attacks on Iran bringing down the regime in Tehran.
While many of Israel’s overt and invisible military moves since October 8, 2023, have been outstanding both on the tactical and strategic levels, Netanyahu’s repeated insistence that Israel is just a step away from gaining an absolute victory over Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and bringing down the extreme Islamic regime in Iran, has rather marred the enthusiasm.
There have been numerous military and political “has-beens” who have consistently warned that military moves must be accompanied by clearly defined diplomatic and political sequels, and that there are no, or very few, examples of regimes in history that have been brought down exclusively by means of airstrikes.
Netanyahu, various members of his coalition and supporters, and most of the commentators on Channel 14, refer to them as hopeless defeatists (or even traitors), who serve the interests of an equally hopeless and defeatist opposition.
Since Vance is known to be one of the skeptics, or even opponents, about the war against Iran, and was most recently designated by US President Donald Trump as the US representative to possible negotiations with Iran under the auspices of Pakistan, officially, Israel cannot badmouth him as it does its other critics.
But is there any chance that Netanyahu might reconsider his own perspective about the limits of what can be achieved by military means only, without accompanying political and diplomatic activities?
Supposedly, this will depend on the extent to which Trump agrees with what Vance said to Netanyahu. Of course, we do not know whether the issue was ever raised by him in his frequent conversations with Netanyahu.
Confusing tactics
In addition, the problem with what Trump says is that in a single paragraph, he can say one thing and then the exact opposite, and we do not know whether this is part of deliberate tactics designed to confuse the Iranians or a chronic state of confusion in his thoughts and plans at any given moment.
So, one reason for the sense of confusion that many of us, who are in favor of the war but critical of Netanyahu, increasingly feel is connected to the conflict between the expectations that Netanyahu tries to instill in us and their failure to materialize.
A second cause of confusion is the fact that there is a growing contradiction between what Netanyahu advocates as the basic premises for success in all the arenas of military confrontation and what he feels he must do in order to remain in power.
Last Wednesday, Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir informed the cabinet that the IDF is liable to collapse into itself should the army’s tasks continue to grow, while the manpower deficit already felt in the IDF will reach 15,000 within the next year.
According to Zamir, the three ways of closing this gap are prolonging the mandatory service of male servicemen from 30 months back to 36; extending the service of reservists, which is already longer than most reservists can cope with without suffering from severe financial and marital consequences; and a new enlistment law that will substantially increase the enlistment of haredim (ultra-Orthodox) for military service, rather than perpetuate their exemption from such service.
The first two proposals are especially objectionable against the background of Netanyahu’s inclination to give in to the demand of the haredi parties – to permanently exempt all haredim from military service – whether or not they permanently attend the yeshivot where they are registered and concentrate on religious studies.
So far, this law has not been passed, but Netanyahu is reported to have promised the haredi parties that it will be passed after Passover.
Netanyahu needs haredi parties
Incidentally, Netanyahu’s position is based on the fact that without the haredi parties, which are threatening to support early elections if their demands on the issue of enlistment are not fulfilled, his government will fall, and he might not be re-elected.
At the same time, he would like the war against Iran to continue indefinitely, which might prove to be impossible if the IDF’s manpower problem is not resolved. It cannot be resolved without the haredim. Netanyahu’s position is undoubtedly paradoxical and confusing to anyone who does not view Netanyahu’s political survival as more important than Israel’s long-term security concerns.
A third issue that many, especially in the opposition, find confusing is the government’s attitude towards residents of the North. At the beginning of the Israel-Hamas War, after Hezbollah joined the attacks on Israel by means of the indiscriminate launching of rockets and drones from Lebanon to Israel’s northern cities, towns, villages, moshavim, and kibbutzim, the government decided to evacuate all the civilian population which lived up to 3.5 km. from the border, to hotels and other temporary havens in Israel.
All together 68,000 people were evacuated from the North, at the expense of the state. By September 2025, 55,500 were reported to have returned to their homes.
On March 16, a little over two weeks after the US-Israel attack on Iran began, Hezbollah once again started launching rockets and drones towards northern Israel. This time, the government decided not to evacuate the population.
Netanyahu actually approached the mayors and council heads of the northern settlements to stop civilians from leaving their homes.
Even though quite a lot of physical damage has been caused in the North from Hezbollah rockets and drones in the last two weeks, and several people have been killed (one from misguided Israeli fire), the government has shown little interest in what is happening to the population in the North.
As a result, there have been cries of anguish and frustration from civilians, mayors, and council heads about the situation. The most moving of these came from the Likud mayor of Kiryat Shmona, Avichai Stern, who has been totally boycotted by Netanyahu since October 2023, apparently because Stern dared criticize him.
Last Wednesday, in a meeting of the forum of directors-general of government ministries with mayors and council heads from the northern confrontation line, Stern burst out at them, claiming that they were neglecting the North, and especially his own city, whose population is down from the 26,000 who lived in Kiryat Shmona before the October 2023 war began to around 10,000 today.
Of those who have remained, most do not have shelters or security rooms, and many lack gainful employment.
Given the vast sums of money being poured these days into the haredi community, and the benefits being bestowed upon the settlers in Judea and Samaria, the situation in the North is not only confusing, but a disgrace as well.
The writer has written journalistic and academic articles, as well as several books, on international relations, Zionism, Israeli politics, and parliamentarism. From 1994 to 2010, she worked at the Knesset Library and the Knesset Research and Information Center.