Tip O’Neil, the legendary speaker of the House, famously said “All politics is local.” The Gershwins said, “It ain’t necessarily so.”
The elections taking place throughout Israel next Tuesday and in the United States a week later will reverberate in distant corners of the earth.
The whole world is watching to see what direction voters will send a pair of authoritarian-leaning governments in the coming year.
The future course of the US-Israel alliance is very much on the line. One thing is certain: change is coming. We may not know where it is heading, but the days when Israel enjoyed broad bipartisan support in America, when lawmakers competed to see who loved Israel more, and billions in virtually unrestricted military assistance passed as if on autopilot are gone, never to return.
After weeks of waiting to see which way the polls were going, US President Donald Trump gave Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a seemingly reluctant endorsement just nine days before the election.
“Anyone” else would be “the wrong leader,” he said. Maybe that’s because, as he has said, he is confident Netanyahu “will do whatever I tell him to do.”
Trump’s rock-bottom approval ratings are largely traced to the Iran war, both for rising inflation and for breaking promises to avoid forever wars. Many of his America First and MAGA cult followers blame Netanyahu for pushing him into that costly conflict, which is endangering Trump’s agenda and Republican majorities in Congress.
Change is coming. The devastating and ongoing Israeli attacks on Gaza and the deaths of tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians have unfortunately overshadowed for many the tragedy of the Hamas massacre of Israelis on October 7, 2023. That translates to calls to restrict or even halt weapons sales as well as technology and intelligence sharing with Israel.
Democrats more outspoken against Israel
Democrats, who are considered likely to control at least one chamber in the next Congress, have been more outspoken but are not alone in their criticism of Netanyahu and his actions.
Increasing numbers have demanded restrictions, including many Jewish lawmakers and legislators with large Jewish constituencies. Expect bipartisan support in the next Congress for restrictions on aid levels and weapons sales.
The Senate is too close to call. If the Democrats win, Sen. Chuck Schumer is likely to again be majority leader.
The highest-ranking elected Jew ever in American politics, he once called himself Bibi’s best friend on Capitol Hill. That ended more than two years ago when Schumer said his friend had “lost his way” by pressing antidemocratic changes at home and the Gaza war and by being an “obstacle to peace.”
Netanyahu is a strident foe of Palestinian statehood, and all his election opponents in all directions have declared their opposition as well. But the two-state solution retains considerable support on Capitol Hill, in the Jewish community, and among Americans generally, who are now, for the first time, telling pollsters they are more sympathetic toward the Palestinian cause than toward Israel.
A further wedge is the spreading violence of Jewish settler terrorism against West Bank Palestinians. Netanyahu dismisses the violence as the work of a few dozen “juvenile delinquents.” He publicly condemns their actions but does nothing.
He dismissed attacks on an American photojournalist and several European diplomats in recent days as “alleged,” suggesting the well-documented reports were part of a “coordinated campaign to smear Israel.”
He’s right about Israel being the victim of a smear, but the perpetrators are Bibi and the violent settlers he is protecting.
There were a few arrests of last week’s alleged attackers, but experience suggests they will soon be released.
A West Bank settler interviewed on CBS’s 60 Minutes said if America is “turning on us... Israel will find other allies.”
Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar has instructed his diplomats to scour the planet for other allies if the United States cuts back.
Under Netanyahu’s leadership, Israel has plunged from popular to pariah among many nations, notably major Western democracies and those with the advanced economies, technology, and intelligence that his country needs.
ISRAEL DOESN’T need new allies as much as it needs to shore up old alliances, and for that it needs a new government.
If Israel’s longest-serving prime minister returns for a seventh term, particularly with much the same cast of religious and nationalist extremists, relationships will continue to implode, particularly if Jewish terrorism spreads, the Iran war heats up again, fighting intensifies in Gaza and Lebanon, and the flow of oil remains clogged.
Challenges facing a new centrist government, if there is one, include rolling back Netanyahu’s antidemocratic judicial “reforms,” establishing an independent October 7 commission of inquiry, cracking down on Jewish terrorists, and repairing relations with allies and the Diaspora.
Longtime supporters who want to see even modest change are dangerously being targeted in this year’s US elections by groups like AIPAC, which demand unquestioning loyalty to Netanyahu’s version of Israel.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) told The Wall Street Journal that he is having trouble hiring staff because many young conservatives object to his support for Israel.
“I’ve seen more antisemitism on the Right in the last two years than at any point in my lifetime,” he said, singling out people like Nick Fuentes and his growing white supremacy movement “Groyperism.”
The foundation of the US-Israel alliance is not, as Netanyahu has preached, white Christian Evangelists and the Republican Party. It is the principle of democracy, shared values, and a committed Jewish community. If the Jews don’t care about Israel, why should anyone else?
And Israel is losing the Jews. Generations of Americans grew up believing Israel is a democracy that wants to live in peace with its neighbors who just want to destroy it. Now they see many Arabs making peace, but they’re not so sure Israel wants to. They see an increasingly authoritarian Israeli government moving to dismantle democracy, waging war on all fronts, and losing friends at warp speed. In this election, no one is talking about making peace.
The golden age of wall-to-wall bipartisan support for Israel is ancient history, and Netanyahu deserves much of the credit. One former Israeli ambassador and Washington veteran told me he “will do anything to stay in power” and “he knows the damage and simply doesn’t care.”
The choice facing Israeli voters is whether they want more of the same deterioration or a leader who can repair damaged bridges and build new ones – with their fellow Israelis, with the Palestinians, with the Diaspora, with America, and around the world.
I’ve heard too many Israelis tell me, “You need us as much as we need you. We can get along very well without you.” I wish it were true, but it ain’t necessarily so.
The writer is a Washington-based journalist, consultant, lobbyist, and former legislative director at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.