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Three weeks into Operation Roaring Lion, the contours of this war are becoming clearer even as the questions multiply.
In the span of 48 hours this week, Israel eliminated three of Iran's most senior remaining officials: Basij commander Gholam Reza Soleimani, intelligence minister Ismail Khatib, and Ali Larijani, the regime's top security official who had been coordinating Iran's wartime strategy since Ayatollah Khamenei's death. Israel referred to Larijani as "the boss of the regime."
The IDF has struck over 7,000 targets. Iran's missile launch rate is reportedly down 90 percent. The navy is functionally gone. Yet for those of us living under the rockets, these numbers feel somewhat abstract. A couple in their 70s was killed this week while making their way to a shelter. The Savidor Merkaz train station in Tel Aviv took a direct hit. The 90 percent figure offers little comfort when you're counting booms overhead.
What's perhaps most striking about week three is the dramatic shift among Iran's neighbors.
Twelve Arab and Islamic foreign ministers issued a joint statement calling on Iran to cease its attacks. The UAE has closed its embassy in Tehran and withdrawn all diplomatic staff. Saudi Arabia is hosting an emergency summit in Riyadh, the same city where, just yesterday, sirens wailed and interceptors lit up the sky as Iranian missiles arrived overhead. For many Saudis, it was their first experience hearing those alerts on their phones.
Iran, meanwhile, struck the Royal Tulip Al Rashid Hotel in Baghdad's Green Zone on March 16 while it was hosting European Union and Saudi Arabian delegations. The EU mission occupied the seventh floor. This came 48 hours after a similar attack on the US Embassy in the same zone.
The strategic logic here is difficult to parse. Qatar mediated US-Iran nuclear talks. Oman served as the diplomatic back channel. Saudi Arabia normalized ties with Tehran just two years ago. These are the countries most capable of facilitating any off-ramp, and Iran is bombing them.
As our diplomatic correspondent Amichai Stein noted in our first week of coverage, the Gulf states used to see Iran as "the bad guy." Now they see it as "the mad guy." That assessment has only hardened.
Then there's the question of the new Supreme Leader.
Mojtaba Khamenei has not appeared publicly. His only communication was a written statement that analysts have picked apart, noting Arabic phrases unusual for someone whose primary language is Farsi, suggesting heavy IRGC involvement in its drafting. Tomorrow marks Nowruz, the Persian New Year, when tradition calls for the Supreme Leader to address the nation.
Whether he appears (in person, on video, or not at all) will be one of the most closely watched moments of this war so far.
The regime, for its part, is trying to project normalcy. Foreign Minister Araghchi declared this week that Iran never asked for a ceasefire, never requested negotiations, and stands ready to defend itself indefinitely. The IRGC has been texting citizens not to celebrate the Festival of Fire, warning that Israeli soldiers might exploit gatherings. State television urged Iranians to burn images of Trump and Netanyahu instead.
This is what panic looks like when dressed in defiance.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office released a statement telling the Iranian people that "in the coming days, we will create the conditions for you to grasp your destiny." Exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi called on Iranians to use the fire festival as a symbol of national solidarity. He suggested he might celebrate Nowruz in Tehran this year.
Whether these are promises that can be kept remains to be seen. But the regime that greeted this war with bravado now finds itself with a hollowed-out leadership, hostile neighbors, and a population watching to see if anyone will actually appear to wish them a happy new year.
The Pentagon has requested $200 billion. The IDF is planning for at least three more weeks of operations, through Passover, according to IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir.
We started filling in on this podcast three weeks ago thinking the war might be brief. We were wrong. Each week brings more clarity about the scale of what's unfolding and more uncertainty about where it ends.