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Economists split on pending interest rate call
DANIEL KENNEMER
04/25/2006
Both the rising fuel price globally and the rising insterest rate would affect Israel's economy, Maoz noted.
With Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer widely expected to raise the shekel interest rate a further 0.25 percentage point Monday evening, analysts are split as to whether the hike is justified. Fischer should keep the shekel interest rate at its current 5-percent level, "even if it becomes equal to the American interest rate on May 10, when the [US Federal Reserve] raises [the dollar] interest rate to 5%," Excellence Nessuah chief economist Shlomo Maoz said Sunday. "There is no justification to raise the interest rate," he added. Among factors mitigating against an additional rate hike, Maoz listed stagnating first quarter exports; a rise in Israel's trade deficit in the first quarter due to increased imports of consumer goods; a drop in imports of investment products; a fiscal surplus totalling 1.5% of the GDP in the first quarter; stability in financial markets (including yields on government bonds and other bonds); the current 8.7% unemployment rate - which Maoz said could rise following the elections due to weaker exports; hints the Fed is approaching the end of its interest rate-raising cycle; and the renewed flow of foreign investment into Israel. Both the rising fuel price globally and the rising insterest rate would affect Israel's economy, Maoz noted. Psagot Ofek Securities economist Eran Dolev, on the other hand, said that Fischer may "have no choice but to raise rates," but could wait until next month to do so, noting that inflation was higher than expected during each of the past three months. Leader Capital Markets predicted that both Fischer's announcement and the coalition building process would make waves in the bonds market. "The appointment of [Labor head] Amir Peretz as Defense Minister will be understood as a positive [signal], but coalition deals are likely to be of concern, particularly with regard to raising the minimum wage," the investment house said in its statement Sunday. "The Bank of Israel decision tomorrow is not an easy one," Leader added. Factors weighing in favor of further hikes are rises in core inflation over the past two months, bringing total inflation over the past 12 months to 3.6%, in addition to the anticipated Fed rate raise. "On the other hand, the shekel is gaining strength and foreign trade figures indicate a slow-down in both exports and imports." Leader predicted that Fischer would raise the intereest rate by 0.25 point, adding that "in any event, we still expect the Bank of Israel interest rate to rise to 6% by the end of the year." Four out of five economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the central bank to raise its interest rate for commercial banks to 5.25% Monday evening, the sixth such increase since September bringing the rate up from a record low of 3.5%. Fischer has raised rates principally to maintain the differential with US borrowing costs and underpin the shekel.
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