Arab voters in the United States are more likely to vote for Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, in the upcoming presidential elections (59%) than to reelect the US President Donald Trump according to a survey conducted among 805 US citizens by the Arab American Institute (AAI). This is because Arab Americans feel as though Trump has been ineffective towards addressing issues of concern for their community.
Biden was seen as more effective at handling concerns than Trump in areas regarding both internal US policy and US relations with the Middle East.Amid US policy concerns regarding the Middle East, 45% of participants responded that resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was amid their top concerns, however was only listed a top priority of all US policy by only 5%.
Additionally, 8% responded that combating terrorism is the most important in determining their vote president.
Resolving Israeli-Palestinian conflict was followed by "meeting the humanitarian concerns of the Syrian people" and "addressing the ongoing political and economic crises in Lebanon."
Trump was seen as having been more ineffective in handling each of these concerns by a margin of two to one. Moreover, Biden was seen as improving US relations with the Arab world by a margin of 49% to 33%.
Surprisingly, even the majority (55%) of Republican Arab American voters said that they favored Biden over Trump. Overall, Biden is viewed favorably by 74% of Arab voters, and unfavorably by 25% compared to Trump who is viewed favorably by 48% and unfavorably by 51%.
The Democratic candidate led the polls in almost all demographic groups, favored among Catholics (55% to 43%), Muslims (60% to 30%), and naturalized citizens (64%to 23%). Biden's margins are largest among younger Arab American voters (67% to 27%) and senior citizens (66% to 26%).
When provided a list of 14 policy concerns and asked to identify the issues that determine the most to whom their votes go in the election, 40% of survey participants said that their number one concern was "race relations in the US today."
The issue of deteriorating race relations looms large for Arab American voters with 70% saying they have a positive view of the nationwide demonstrations supporting Black lives and 74% holding critical views of policing practices in the US.
Race relations was followed by 23% of Arab voters who said that their economy was their biggest concern, 21% who answered healthcare and 17% who answered social security and Medicare.
Biden was favored by a significant margin over Trump in all of these issues with the exception the issue regarding jobs and economy.
The Arab vote is most crucial in the battleground states of Michigan, with the potential of making up to 5% of the state's vote, and Ohio and Pennsylvania with a 1.7-2% potential.
Notably, of the 80% of participants who said they are most likely to vote, more Trump voters (75%) are concerned that their ballots might not be counted than Biden voters (63%). Most Democrats say they are either voting early in person or by mail (52%), while most Republicans are waiting until election day to cast their votes (62%).This election cycle, 40% of Arab Americans are Democrats and 33% are Republicans, narrower than the 52%/26%
split during the 2016 election.