Nearly four years after Operation Cast Lead, a new battle to restore security
for the South has begun. The deterrence levels gained by Israel in the 2009
operation have run out, in great part due to the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood
in Egypt.
With Hamas feeling confident over the ascendancy of its fellow
Islamists in the region, and the emergence of a new patron in Cairo, it and
Islamic Jihad chipped away at Israeli deterrence, attempting to set new rules by
preventing the IDF from carrying out vital security missions on the Gaza
border.
As it built up its rocket arsenals, Hamas and the other factions
responded to Israel’s measures to secure the border with more and more
indiscriminate rocket barrages on the long-suffering South, filling the lives of
hundreds of thousands of civilians with dread, trauma and
disruption.
Hamas has overplayed its hand. It mistook Israeli restraint
for weakness.
The current operation underway in Gaza is based on a
flexible approach. It began by sending a strong message to Hamas: that it must
choose between the survival of its members and the continued firing of rockets
at southern cities, towns and villages. At the same time, Israel has left Hamas
with an exit. Should it decrease the rocket attacks, the IDF will scale back its
operation.
The aim is not to topple the Hamas regime – at least not at
this stage.
Israel once again has proved that its intelligence
capabilities in Gaza are superb not only by targeting the head of the rocket-
launching machine, Ahmed Jabari, but also by removing most of Hamas’s long-range
underground rocket launchers in the first wave of air strikes.
The ball
is now in Hamas’s court. If it chooses to continue to lash out at Israel’s
civilians, it could find itself face to face with a ground offensive, a
development that would take the current operation to a new
level.
Operation Pillar of Defense is also a message to the wider region,
now filling up with Islamist forces: Israel will not be deterred from taking
basic steps to defend its civilians.