There is something ironic about the situation in Sinai, a senior defense
official said on Monday. Israel is officially in a perpetual state of war with
Lebanon and Syria, but those are two of Israel’s quietest borders
today.
“Egypt, which we have peace with, is turning into our biggest
problem,” the official said.
This sums up the strategic predicament that
Israel faces when confronting the growing terror threat brewing on the hot Sinai
sand dunes. If rockets are fired from Lebanon or Syria, Israel would know what
to do, just as it has done in the past – respond. If shots are fired at troops
along the border with the Gaza Strip, it would also know what to do – fire
back.
When it comes to Egypt, though, the black-and-white rules of engagement which apply to Israel’s other fronts are not applicable due
to the nature of the two countries’ relationship. It is tense, but there is
peace. There are attacks, but there is peace.
Since Hosni Mubarak’s fall,
the number of intelligence alerts that the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) has
recorded regarding possible attacks from Sinai has more than tripled and there
is a standing general warning in place at the IDF’s Edom Division, responsible
for the border.
But while Israel can retaliate and respond militarily to
attacks from Gaza, its hands are – for the time being – tied in the face of the
same threats from Egypt.
For this reason, Israel’s response to Monday
morning’s attack will be twofold and will be split between the military and the
government.
On the one hand, the military will continue to search for the
perpetrators and the organization which orchestrated the attack. If they are
found to be from the Gaza Strip – the likely culprits are Hamas, Islamic Jihad
or the Popular Resistance Committees – Israel’s response will come in Gaza, as
it did after the deadly attack along the Sinai border last August.
On the
other hand, the government will use the attack to impress upon the new
leadership in Cairo that it needs to begin taking the Sinai threat seriously and
to move it up its list of priorities.
For Israel, it makes no difference
who the president is and whether he is from the Muslim Brotherhood or not.
Either way, officials explained on Monday, only Egypt can stop terror in
Egypt.
The timing of the attack, though – on the same day as Mohamed
Morsy declared victory in the runoff against Ahmed Shafik – cannot be
ignored.
While it is unlikely that the Muslim Brotherhood was directly
involved in the attack, the anti-Israel rhetoric by some of its leaders is not
helpful in fostering good relations between the two countries.
What this
means for Israel is that the situation will not change and if anything it will
get worse. This will require Israel to rethink its current ban on military
action and to rethink the value of the peace treaty against the continued
attacks and decide what is more important.
The problem is that the
occasional rocket attack from Sinai might turn into the least of Israel’s
worries. What happens if in a year from now, Morsy decides to send the military
into Sinai for exercises, something forbidden under the peace treaty? What will
Israel do then? Rip up the peace treaty? Go to war? It is unclear when dealing
with the new Egyptian hybrid of peace and terror.