It has been assumed that millennials are fond of the city, but an analysis of Israel’s migration data may prove otherwise.
By YAIR ASSAF-SHAPIRAIsrael net migration 2012-2014(photo credit: JERUSALEM INSTITUTE FOR ISRAEL STUDIES)
Looking at migration data, we see that most people migrate between the ages of 20 and 35. For example, in Jerusalem 63% of both incoming and outgoing migrants in 2014 (not including children under 15) are within this age group. This age group, born between 1980 and 1995, is labeled “millennials,” or “Generation Y.”It has been assumed that millennials are fond of the city, but an analysis of Israel’s migration data may prove otherwise. Despite the expected urbanization of this generation, millennials may too dream of a white picket fence and house in the suburbs, similar to their parents.Migration data from 2012 to 2014 show that the large cities in Israel (100,000+ residents), which are home to a total of 3.5 million people, had a net loss of 33,900 residents due to migration – a negative migration balance. These migrants moved to smaller towns or to rural villages. In terms of negative balance per 1,000 residents, Ashdod and Jerusalem topped the list with -29 and -27 residents during 2012-2014 per 1,000 respectively, followed by Beersheba (-13); Haifa (-11); Tel Aviv (-10); and Rishon Lezion (-6.4).Jerusalem is characterized by a high natural population increase, and had the largest “spillover,” with a negative three-year balance of -22,900 residents. Although Jerusalem has invested in numerous building projects, its high population increase could not be accommodated within the city limits, leading to this negative migration balance.City size and character are only some of the factors that influence migration. Additional factors such as construction, geographical location and service provision may explain the positive migration balances of Petah Tikva (+9,100; increase of 40 residents per 1,000) and Netanya (+2,700; increase of 13 residents per 1,000), two of Israel’s large cities.Localities with positive balances were found mainly in cities with the population of 10,000-20,000 residents. Notable examples were Beer Ya’acov (+142 per 1,000 residents), Mazkeret Batya (+110), and Givat Ze’ev (+81). Yavne is in the category of cities with a population of 20,000-50,000, and is another example of a positive balance, at +111 per 1,000 residents.Contrary to popular belief, it is evident that the millennial generation is moving away from Israel’s large cities and toward the smaller cities and rural localities.