The looming war with Iran

The encroaching war with Iran will not be initiated by the US or Israel.

By AVI PERRY
Iranian submarine in Strait of Hormuz 311 (photo credit: REUTERS/Stringer Iran)
Iranian submarine in Strait of Hormuz 311
(photo credit: REUTERS/Stringer Iran)
Watching the Sunday talk shows on American TV, the experts were all of the opinion that neither the US nor Israel will embark on attacking the Iranian nuclear facilities in 2012. I tend to agree. Neither the US nor Israel will initiate an attack on Iran. Still, I believe that these experts were off by a million miles.
Iran, just like Nazi Germany in the 1940s, will take the initiative and “help” the US president and the American public make up their mind by making the first move, by attacking a US aircraft carrier in the Persian Gulf.
The Iranian attack on an American military vessel will serve as a justification and a pretext for a retaliatory move by the US military against the Iranian regime. The target would not be Iran’s nuclear facilities. The US would retaliate by attacking Iran’s navy, their military installations, missile silos, airfields. The US would target Iran’s ability to retaliate, to close down the Strait of Hormuz. The US would then follow by targeting the regime itself.
Elimination of Iran’s nuclear facilities? Yes. This part would turn out to be the final act, the grand finale. It might have been the major target, had the US initiated the attack. However, under this “Pearl Harbor” scenario, in which Iran had launched a “surprise” attack on the US navy, the US would have the perfect rationalization to finish them off, to put an end to this ugly game.
Unlike the latest attempt at an Iranian revolution, this time the US would not shy away, rather, it would go public, openly calling for the Iranian people to join in with the US in working to overthrow the corrupt Islamic fundamentalist regime. The Iranian people would respond in numbers.
Spring would reemerge, and the Iranian people would join the rest of the Middle East - this time with the direct support of the US.
The greatest irony behind this most significant episode in 2012 is that the Iranian regime would affect their own demise. Attacking the US navy in the open seas is equivalent to carrying out a suicide bombing.
The Iranian government has become bolder by the day. Their hubris has been mounting as a result of the world’s inability to bring to an end their quest for nuclear weapons. If the Revolutionary Guards achieve that final step, demonstrating their nuclear capability, their bullying conduct would swell beyond their region. It would grow to be catastrophic.
The responsible world understands that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei must be stopped, but the US, EU and Israel are in no mood to instigate a military confrontation, for fear of its negative economic impact due to a potential closing of the Strait of Hormuz and another bloody war which would engulf Israel and its neighbors.
Iran’s mullahs understand the world’s anxiety and its lack of resolve when it comes to confronting them militarily. The Iranian government is blinded by its own ability to intimidate, to call the shots, to ignore warnings. What the Iranians fail to realize is that some of the lines they are about to cross are red - blood red.
2012 will see to a new war. This time, Iran will initiate it. This time the US will respond. This time the Iranian regime will bring about its own demise. This time the Persian Spring will bear fruits.
This time the Iranian nuclear cloud will evaporate before it rains down on the infidels.
The writer is currently a talk show host at Paltalk News Network (PNN). He served as an intelligence expert for the Israeli government and was a professor at Northwestern University. He is the author of Fundamentals of Voice Quality Engineering in Wireless Networks, and more recently, 72 Virgins. Both books can be purchased at www.aviperry.org.