Who's afraid of a regional war?

The upheaval in Syria could lead to fighting between Israel and Hezbollah.

By DANIEL NISMAN
Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah 370 (photo credit: REUTERS/Sharif Karim)
Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah 370
(photo credit: REUTERS/Sharif Karim)
Baltasar Gracian, the 16th century Spanish poet, once wrote: “Better mad with the rest of the world than wise alone.” As the world around him descends into chaos, Gracianian logic has surely begun to resonate with Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. On July 18, while the rest of the Middle East was savoring its first taste of the demise of the Assad regime, Nasrallah reiterated Hezbollah’s unwavering support for the embattled dictator and his readiness to plunge the whole of Lebanon into conflict in order to help Assad survive.
Addressing thousands of diehard Shi'ite supporters in south Beirut on the anniversary of the 2006 war with Israel, Nasrallah drew a clear line in the sand. “Our missiles are Syrian,” he declared, referring to the massive military assistance afforded to his militia by the Assad regime. “We are sad over the killing of the three [generals] because they were comrades-in-arms to the resistance [Hezbollah] and comrades in the struggle against the [Israeli] enemy,” Nasrallah said, hours after key members of Assad’s inner circle were killed in a deadly bombing attack in Damascus.
Decision makers from Riyadh to Jerusalem to Washington should have little doubt that Nasrallah’s speech was both a carefully-timed and carefully-worded warning: Hezbollah will not go down without a fight.
With the help of the Assad dynasty, Hezbollah had become the dominant force in Lebanon – its militia superior to those of rival Christian, Sunni, or Druze sects. Today, few in Lebanon would disagree that only fears of a civil war involving Hezbollah’s organized militia are keeping the country’s practically defunct government intact.
Indeed, the eventual loss of the Assad regime will deal a crippling blow to Hezbollah’s tenure at the top of Lebanon’s political food chain. Hezbollah’s vast arsenal is already in the cross-hairs of an increasingly emboldened Sunni opposition who has demanded its incorporation into the national army.
Furthermore, Syria has always played an influential role in Lebanese politics, and Nasrallah can only imagine how his political landscape would shift with an unsympathetic Sunni-dominated regime in Assad’s stead.
Hezbollah’s only hope for securing long term influence in Lebanon lies in the bunkers of Syria’s rapidly unraveling military. Across Syria lie stockpiles of advanced anti-aircraft missiles, anti-ship missiles, and chemical weapons that if acquired, would provide Hezbollah with unprecedented deterrence against any foe, whether foreign or domestic.
These weapons have been on the radar screen of the Israeli security establishment ever since Assad’s troops fired their first shots in Deraa more than 16 months ago. There has rarely been a speech about Syria made by an Israeli official which did not express concern over the possibility that it may fall into Hezbollah’s hands. Following the rebel offensive in Damascus, Israel’s Defense Minister Ehud Barak issued his sternest warning to date, threatening military intervention to thwart Hezbollah from plundering Syrian caches, while Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman cited the transfer of unconventional weapons to Hezbollah as a casius belli – a justification for war.
If his recent speech was any indication, Nasrallah will not allow Israel to deprive his faction of their continued hegemony in Lebanon. In mentioning the Syrian origin of Hezbollah’s missiles and his resolute support for the Assad regime in the same breath, Nasrallah has threatened the Israelis declaring that any attack on Syria is an attack on Hezbollah.
The Israelis are privy to this notion, and have begun making preparations for a new round of hostilities on their northern border in anticipation of a Hezbollah attack. Ongoing emergency drills near strategic locations have been coupled with military maneuvers and threatening rhetoric from Israeli generals. "Lebanon will sustain greater damage than that done during the second Lebanon War," stated a top Israeli officer in July, referring to Israel’s response to Hezbollah rocket attacks on Israeli population centers. "The response will need to be sharper, harder, and in some ways very violent.”
The stage has been set for a major escalation in the eastern Mediterranean, and Nasrallah’s predicament could not be greater. To preserve Hezbollah’s dominance over Lebanon is to invoke a major conflict with the Israeli military, one which promises to bring widespread destruction across the country. Nasrallah’s other option? To sit back and watch in anguish as the hard-won prominence of Lebanon’s Shi'ites gradually sinks into the swamp of the Arab Spring.
The author is an Intelligence Manager at Max Security Solutions, a geopolitical risk consulting firm based in the Middle East. You can follow him on Twitter @dannynis.